Finding the Toronto Maple Leafs’ version of Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg

Dylan Holloway’s numbers with Edmonton in his last year were super encouraging. He showed a massive jump in development despite an increased role difficulty from the season prior. Everything improved across the board from 2022–23 to 2023–24 for the 6’1” centre.

His possession numbers skyrocketed, his chance creation and finishing improved, and he was able to maintain his play-driving and chance suppression numbers while gaining confidence and expanding his impact elsewhere offensively. While his nine points in 38 games weren’t eye-popping in his last year with Edmonton as a bottom-six forward, the model loved the impact he was providing regardless.

Holloway’s growth in 2024–25 as a playdriver and finisher was still pretty shocking, especially given his role difficulty skyrocketed with the Blues (especially under new Head Coach Jim Montgomery), however his chance creation, possession and chance suppression metrics were still strong, even though there was a bit of a decline.

Philip Broberg–LD–6’4”–St. Louis Blues

Broberg was a player who performed well for Edmonton whenever he got his chances, but often found himself pushed down the depth chart by veterans. Similar to Timothy Liljegren in Toronto, it never really seemed like he had the trust of his coaches and was constantly in and out of the lineup whenever the team hit a lull or needed a change.

With a more consistent role this season in St. Louis? Spectacular across the board. He took a step back defensively in a bigger, tougher role, but he drove play about as well as any defenceman in the NHL this year while still having great chance creation metrics.

While the offersheet of almost $4.6M x two seemed like a lot at the time for a player who couldn’t consistently find ice time in Edmonton, he’s blossomed into a legit second pair defenceman in St. Louis and at age 23 looks to be a long-term fixture on their blueline.

Now let’s get back to the two Dallas RFAs that I think Toronto should be aiming to get with their offer sheets.

Mavrik Bourque and Nils Lundkvist

That’s right, Mavrik Bourque and Nils Lundkvist are the two Dallas Stars that I think Toronto would be smart to go after. Bourque and Lundkvist are only 23 and 24 years old, respectively, which means they’re both young enough to be part of Toronto’s next window in 2028–29 when Auston Matthews’ contract expires at age 31.

If Matthews chooses not to return, Toronto would ideally still have a core built around a 26-year-old Matthew Knies, 27-year-old Mavrik Bourque, 28-year-old Nils Lundkvist and hopefully a 24-year-old Easton Cowan and 23-year-old Ben Danford. If he does return, that young nucleus of players would be capable of stepping up into support roles as players like McCabe, Tanev, Tavares and Domi regress due to age.

Mavrik Bourque–C–5’11”–Dallas Stars

We can see here that Bourque’s deployment in his rookie season is already more difficult than what Holloway’s was in 2023–24. Holloway was a much better play driver than Bourque has been for Dallas (36^th percentile for Holloway in 2023–24 compared to just 11^th percentile for Bourque this year), but we can also see that Bourque had really strong metrics offensively as a chance creator and finisher.

Defensively, Bourque, having the chance suppression results he had with the role difficulty he was deployed in, was really impressive, and while he didn’t hit a lot, he blocked tons of shots when he was on the ice, and had one of the best penalties taken vs drawn ratios in the entire league.

He was almost a regular for Dallas this season, putting up 25 points in 73 games (with 11 goals), but it became clear that he hadn’t earned the trust of Head Coach Peter DeBoer, who only played him in three out of Dallas’ 18 playoff games.

I think Bourque is a player who could explode for offence alongside a player like William Nylander, if given the opportunity, who can take on a lot of the work as a playmaker. Bourque could then be a secondary playmaker on that line by using his quickness and hockey sense while also providing strong value as a 200-foot player and penalty killer.

The best part is that with his versatile skillset, there’s a ton of flexibility for Berube to use him:

Bourque–Tavares–Nylander

McMann–Domi–Bourque

UFA–Laughton–Bourque

These are all potential middle-six lines Toronto could employ with Bourque, who also has centre flexibility.

I would offer Bourque a $2,340,037 x two-year deal, which is the highest AAV the Leafs can offer, where the only asset they would give up is their 2026 third-round pick.

Nils Lundkvist–RD–6’1”–Dallas Stars

Nils Lundkvist is a really good player; whenever he’s been forced to play in a top-four role, he’s flourished. However, Lundkvist has been used sparingly for Dallas; he spent most of 2023–24 as Dallas’ seventh defenceman and only played just over four minutes a night in the playoffs last year.

While Lundkvist was a staple in Dallas’ lineup this year before shoulder surgery in February ended his season, he struggled as DeBoer used him more often in the defensive zone than offensive zone this year, which mitigated what Lundkvist is best at.

As you can see in his card, in a more sheltered role where he spends more shifts in the offensive zone, Lundkvist put up exceptional play-driving, chance creation and possession numbers. While he’s reached a new high this season defensively, it’s come at a huge cost to his offensive game, which has fallen off a cliff.

I talked in my previous article about how Moverare could perhaps provide the Leafs a cheaper replacement for Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who was brought in to be a strong puck-moving defenceman who could activate and generate entries and exits. Unfortunately, Toronto was forced to deploy OEL on his offside, which heavily impacted his effectiveness in that area.

Lundkvist fits those requirements perfectly; he can skate, moves the puck well, and he’s bulked up heading into this past season, which made him harder to play against and better defensively.

Brandon Carlo has played some of his best hockey with stout two-way defencemen like Hampus Lindholm, and I wonder if, with Lundkvist, Toronto could switch up their defence to be deployed as such:

McCabe–Carlo

Rielly – Tanev

Benoit–Lundkvist

McCabe–Carlo can serve as the shutdown pair, and you still have two players capable of driving play and moving the puck on your other two pairs. It would also be the first time in years that Toronto would have three true right-handed shots on their blueline.

With his injury, Toronto would only have to offer Lundkvist probably around what he’s currently making. I would be willing to go as high as $1,544,424 x two years to bring the puck-moving right-handed defenceman to Toronto, which wouldn’t cost any assets.

Cap Outlook

Under the following assumptions:

• Toronto doesn’t trade any of Domi, Jarnkrok, or Kampf
• Knies is signed long-term on an 8M x eight extension
• Tavares is brought back on a 4.5M x four extension
• Holmberg is re-signed for a figure around 1M
• Oliver Ekman-Larsson is traded away and replaced by Lundkvist

 The Leafs cap outlook for the rest of the offseason would look like so:

Forwards

With this forward group, Toronto would have just shy of $13M in cap space to sign a top-flight forward and a few depth forwards. If Kampf and Jarnkrok are traded, that would leave Toronto around 17.5M to revamp their forward group.

Assuming no trades, the line-up would likely look something like this:

Knies–Matthews – Domi

?–Tavares–Nylander

McMann–Laughton–Bourque

Holmberg – Kampf – Jarnkrok

Defence

As mentioned before, the defence pairs would likely look something along the lines of:

Rielly–Tanev

McCabe–Carlo

Benoit–Lundkvist

Myers

What the Leafs need

The best part about these offer sheets is that both Bourque and Lundkvist would still be RFAs upon the expiry of their contracts. Additionally, if both players pan out and blossom into legit contributors for Toronto, extending the two of them at age 25 and 26 long term wouldn’t be worrisome since a six-year deal would take them to ages 31 and 32.

I think that adding two young NHL-calibre players with untapped potential for the cost of a third-round pick is worth exploring. If either Bourque or Lundkvist have anywhere near the impact Holloway and Broberg had for St. Louis this year, then it’s a slam dunk investment for the Leafs.