The Edmonton Oilers’ 2025 preseason is the perfect illustration of why the NHL is wisely reducing the number of preseason games per team to four starting next year. Teams don’t need six-eight games to finalize their opening-day rosters, especially when the first four of five games are played with and against rosters filled with players who aren’t NHL ready.

When training camp began, I listed they had 16 forwards and eight D-men competing for roster spots. If you wanted to stretch it to nine and include Arto Leppänen and make it nine D-men, sure, but he was a massive longshot with the left-side depth of Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse, Brett Kulak and Jake Walman.

And this morning the Oilers have 16 forwards remaining, which includes the injured Zach Hyman, who will likely miss the first 10-15 games, eight D-men and two goalies. Nothing has changed. The same players most expected to be battling for roster spots are here. Which makes sense, because outside of the rare surprise, most NHL teams have 15-16 forwards and eight D-men with realistic chances to make the team, and that’s why the preseason will be reduced next year.

Tonight represents one final chance for players on the bubble to impress the Oilers coaches and managers. They play the Vancouver Canucks, who will dress a near-NHL roster, which should give the Oilers’ evaluators a better canvas to assess those players on the bubble. However, I think a player would have to really struggle to play their way off the team based on one performance. I really only see one difficult decision.

Let’s dive in.

Here are the skaters who remain.

Draisaitl-McDavid-Frederic
Howard-RNH-Mangiapane
Podkozlin-Tomášek-Savoie
Janmark-Henrique-Kapanen
Jones-Philp-Lazar
Hyman (injured).

Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Walman
Kulak-Regula
Stecher-Emberson

Skinner and Pickard will be the two goalies to start the season, so Edmonton needs to reduce their roster by three skaters.

Edmonton can be cap compliant with Hyman on the opening day roster, by having a total of 14 forwards, seven D-men and two goalies. However, if they plan on putting Hyman on LTIR, they will want to be as close to the cap as possible, and maximize LTIR usage, although with him not scheduled to be out very long, it isn’t as crucial.

Let’s look at the roster possibilities and salary cap influence.

— Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Trent Frederic, Andrew Mangiapane, Adam Henrique, Vasily Podkolzin, Matt Savoie (I explain why he’s a lock three points below), Kasperi Kapanen, Mattias Janmark (will explain below), Mattias Ekholm, Evan Bouchard, Darnell Nurse, Jake Walman, Brett Kulak, Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard are locks to be on the roster. That is 11 forwards, five D-men and two goalies. Their combined salaries are $87,738,166. The Oilers also have $2.3m of dead cap space in Jack Campbell and another $250K from bonus overages last season for a combined cap hit of $90,288,166.

— GM Stan Bowman and head coach Kris Knoblauch have $5,211,834 in cap space to fill out the final five spots on his roster. They can keep four other forwards and two D-men or three forwards and three D-men.

His options upfront include David Tomášek ($1.2m), Max Jones ($1m), Ike Howard ($950K), Noah Philp ($775K) and Curtis Lazar ($775K) while Ty Emberson ($1.3m), Troy Stecher ($787.5K) and Alec Regula ($775K) are the options on defense. Their combined salaries are $7,562,500. The three players sent down need to total at least $2,350,666 for the Oilers to be cap compliant. The Oilers couldn’t send down Lazar, Philp and one of Stecher or Regula and be cap compliant, for instance.

— Edmonton would like to be as close to the $95.5m cap ceiling with Hyman on their roster, so if they move him to LTIR, they can maximize his LTIR space, and that is why I expect Ty Emberson to make the team, not to mention he’s had a solid, but not spectacular camp. He still gets hit too much for my liking, as it shows he isn’t moving the puck quick enough. I have him on the roster, which leaves seven options to fill out the final four spots.

— Jones hasn’t played a game, and Kris Knoblauch said this morning he believes he’d be ready to start the season, which means he’d clear the medical and be able to be placed on waivers. I expect him to go down. If he isn’t deemed healthy enough, that could change things, a bit, but not much. Jones, Philp, Lazar, Stecher and Regula require waivers, while Tomášek and Howard don’t, and being waiver exempt will play a factor in roster construction.

— Savoie is a lock for me due to how he’s played, but also due to the performance bonuses in his contract. A unique wrinkle of the CBA is that if Savoie (or any player with performance bonuses) isn’t on the opening day roster, and is recalled later in the season, his cap hit will be his AAV ($886,666) plus his $1m bonuses, so he’d count as a $1.886,66 cap hit. The Oilers won’t do that, and that’s why he’s a lock.

— Ike Howard has $250K in performance bonuses this season, so if they send him down and recall him he’s a $1.2m cap hit. Not a huge difference, but in the cap world every dollar counts, so I see him being on the roster on opening day. Howard could benefit from some AHL time later this season. One area of his game he’ll need to work on is moving the puck quicker and more effectively. He’s a great shooter, however, and that is a very important skill to possess.

— By a pure salary cap calculation, sending down Howard, and two of Philp, Lazar and Regula would put them $149,334 under the cap, allowing for the most LTIR capture, but that would mean exposing the latter two (who go down) to waivers. I don’t see that scenario playing out. Here are the scenarios, and what I think happens.

— I expect Tomášek to be one of the three players sent down. He doesn’t require waivers, and he doesn’t have any performance bonuses, so his cap hit will be the same regardless. However, that will only be a paper transaction. He will be recalled when Hyman is moved to LTIR, being recalled. Tomášek is going to start on the first unit PP in place of Hyman, and his playmaking skills and hard shot give them some different looks. This unit has never had a right-shot forward with the ability to shoot from distance.

— I have Jones as the second player going down. Since he hasn’t played, I guess there is a slight chance he isn’t cleared medically to go down, so that could create a wrinkle. But, Knoblauch said today, they expect him to be cleared.

— So that leaves one of Regula, Stecher, Lazar or Philp going down.

Philp has played well, but the two areas they want their fourth line centre to excel at are winning faceoffs and on the penalty kill. He hasn’t dominated in either area, so watch to see how he performs in those spots tonight. That will be a major factor in if he makes the roster or not.

Lazar is a known commodity. Knoblauch called him reliable, and for faceoffs and the PK, that is a big deal.

Stecher has played over 500 games. You know what you get from him. He’s competitive, gives you everything he has every night, but he’s smaller and older than Regula.

Regula has impressed many with his play. For a guy who hasn’t played since March 23rd, 2024 (over 18 months), he’s looked good. At 6’4″ and 220 pounds his size and puck skills are very appealing.

— The other option is we could see Bowman trade one of the three D-men battling for the final roster spot, rather than potentially lose them for nothing on waivers. It wouldn’t rank this high on my list of possibilities, but you can’t rule it out. Teams never want to lose a player for nothing (waivers) and that’s why I can’t rule out that option.

LINEUPS….

Draisaitl-McDavid-Frederic
Podkolzin-RNH-Mangiapane
Howard-Tomášek-Kapanen
Henrique-Philp-Savoie
Lazar (will make trip as an extra).

Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Stecher
Kulak-Emberson
Regula going as extra as well in case of illness.

Pickard

The Oilers recalled Matt Tomkins, as it sounds like Stuart Skinner (who was on the ice) is battling the illness that has spread through the team. If Skinner can’t go, I expect Pickard to start. Regula has already played five preseason games, while Stecher and Emberson have played four. I think that factors in to the veterans playing tonight. Lazar is on the trip in case another forward gets ill.

Look to see who plays on the PK tonight. Nugent-Hopkins, Mangiapane, Kapanen, Philp and Savoie will be in the mix. I also expect Draisaitl and McDavid to get some PK time this season. Knoblauch likes how they kill, and Florida won two Cups with Alex Barkov and Sam Reinhart on the PK, so expect them to get some PK time as well.

The second unit PP will consist of Savoie, Howard, Frederic, Ekholm and Henrique will be the net front. When Jake Walman is healthy, I could see him taking Ekholm’s spot.

Canucks

DeBrusk-EP#40-Boeser
Bains-Chytil-Garland
Kane-Cootes-Lekkerimaki
O’Connor-Blueger-Sherwood

Hughes-Hronek
M. Pettersson-Myers
EP#25-Willander

Demko

The Canucks’ lineup looks very close to what their final roster could be. Aaty Raty, Linus Karlsson and Max Sasson are the other forwards still in camp while Derek Forbort and Pierre-Oliver Joseph are getting some rest on the backend. Young Braeden Cootes, from Sherwood Park, Alberta, has had a very good camp. He’s impressed the Canucks a lot after they drafted him 15th overall this past June. He will likely be destined to Seattle of the Western Hockey League at some point, but he could see a few regular season games potentially. He’s played very well.

TONIGHT…