Habs Round 2 X-Factor: Cole Caufield

During Round 1, Caufield only mustered a single goal, which was scored on the power play in Game 4. The Lightning managed to shut down all possible offence coming from his stick during the 7-game series. However, with the way that the Lightning defend so tightly against their opposition, it made sense for Caufield to struggle a bit against them to score. Unfortunately, when the game started to open up a bit more at even-strength in Games 5 and 6, Caufield seemed to lose confidence in his abilities as he had gone cold. Aside from hitting the post off a great shot that hit the post in Game 6, it seemed as if Caufield were holding his stick too tightly and would miss the net on the prime scoring chances that he would get.

The truth is that the Lightning defend tighter than anyone, and thanks to the clutch & grab that many Lightning defensemen such as Ryan McDonagh use in the playoffs to stay close to their man without taking a penalty, they can prevent the guys like Caufield from getting separation to take a dangerous shot. The way that the Lightning defend can be particularly tough for guys like Caufield and Nick Suzuki who thrive from creating separation on rushes to take advantage of their scoring chances. Caufield will never be the guy who will crash the net, as he usually can score by getting shots off from the side of the net, but that wasn’t available against the Lightning, which is why he failed to produce at even strength.

Luckily, for Caufield, there should be more space for him to take advantage of his prime scoring opportunities throughout the series against the Sabres. Yes, the Sabres may be physical, as were the Washington Capitals last season, but Caufield still had the room to produce offensively. In 5 playoff games in 2025, Caufield managed to score 3 goals against the Capitals, which proves that he can indeed still handle playoff hockey; it was just how closely he was watched by the Lightning that was the issue in Round 1 for the sniper.

Now, the fact that the Sabres will have big guys who will be more physical than the Lightning may seem like a completely different issue, but he should also get the space to get his shot off more often. Chances are we could see the Sabres’ defence, who are still relatively inexperienced, make a lot more mistakes than the Lightning, who were almost flawless against the Habs’ top line in the 7-game series. As a result, it was the forward depth lower in the lineup and goaltending that won the Habs the series.

In this series against the Sabres, the Habs bottom-six won’t matchup nearly as well as they did in Round 1. The 3rd line of Josh Doan, Josh Norris, and Zach Benson will likely do serious damage in the series, as all three players could easily make a solid 2nd line. With that being said, the bottom six will need to be on the defensive side of things for the Habs, while their top six will need to do a good load of the scoring. The Habs are lucky to have the 2nd best goal scorer in the regular season on their team, as he will be relied upon more in the 1st round to score.

Unfortunately, Caufield may start the series slow, as his confidence is at its lowest in terms of scoring lately, but once he gets going, the floodgates could open up, allowing him to be the x-factor that puts the Habs over the Sabres in the end. Caufield scored 51 goals this season, he find his way to score in this series mark my words. 

Who is your x-factor for the Canadiens in this series?