How coaching changes have impacted the Toronto Maple Leafs playoff success

The last time the Toronto Maple Leafs won the Stanley Cup, there were only six teams in the NHL, no players wore helmets, and it was five years before Leafs owner Harold Ballard was convicted of 49 counts of tax fraud.

After winning the Cup in 1967, the team embarked on some dark times, and as every hockey fan knows, they haven’t won since. They went 19 years without even winning a playoff round. That drought could’ve legally bought alcohol in Ontario.

After signing John Tavares to a seven-year, $77M contract in 2018 and having two top-five draft picks in Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, it seemed the Leafs were destined to win soon.

Coming Up Short

However, here we are at the end of the Tavares contract and still no championships. The Leafs have been dubbed by other fan bases as the “Dallas Cowboys of hockey” because of their unwavering faith that their team could get it done. You’ve probably heard the phrase “this is the year,” which has become somewhat of a trademark in Toronto.

I’m not trying to open a can of worms here, but what if this year is different? In past years, the Leafs have struggled in the playoffs for a wide variety of reasons. But this year feels new.

Their best chance for a deep run was in the shortened season in 2021, when teams only played within their division for the first two rounds. The Leafs were considered by many to be the best team in the all-Canadian division. But we all remember how that went.

A New Era

This year, the Leafs seem to be playing better than they have in past years, winning the Atlantic Division under new head coach Craig Berube. Berube has the Leafs playing a more defensive style than Sheldon Keefe did, and so far it’s working, but there’s a long way to go.

The Leafs finished the season with a record of 52–26–4, which was good enough for 108 points, earning them first place in the Atlantic and second place overall in the Eastern Conference.

Toronto finished the season with 229 goals against, which was eighth in the league. During Keefe’s coaching tenure from 2019–2024, in the goals against category, the Leafs were 20th, seventh, 19th, seventh again, and 21st last season.

The Leafs had 267 goals for this season, good enough for seventh in the league. During Keefe’s tenure, they didn’t have a single year outside the top 10 in goals for. Keefe took the offensive firepower of the core four and ran with it. Out of his five years with the Leafs, they only missed the playoffs once, and that was out of technicality because they lost in the qualifying round in 2020 to Columbus in the bubble.

Some teams may consider making the playoffs a successful season, but the Leafs don’t. So Keefe was fired in 2024 following a first-round loss to the Boston Bruins. He’s now the head coach of the New Jersey Devils.

This season, under Berube, the Leafs were 21–6 in one-goal games, and 10–1 in one-goal games at home. Forty per cent of the Leafs’ wins this year were in one-goal games. Also, they were 35–1–1 this season when they had the lead after two periods, while being 18–0–1 at home.

Berube’s coaching career was highlighted by the St. Louis Blues in 2019. He took over mid-season, helping them go from last place on January 2nd, 2019, to becoming Stanley Cup champions!

Not to say that coaching is the answer to all the Leafs’ problems, because it’s not. In years past, the goaltending has been inconsistent, and the scoring has disappeared. Just last year, Toronto went from Samsonov to Woll and back to Samsonov in the first round. Now, TSN radio is calling Stolarz one of the best Leaf signings ever, and Woll is proving to be a playoff performer.

There’s a lot that goes into being a good team; it all starts with the coach. If you’re not the kind of coach 25 guys want to play for, you’re not going to be successful.

Similarities

Look at a team like the Washington Capitals in the 2010s. They had the second-best player in the world at the time in Alex Ovechkin. However, they had a demon in Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins.

In 2014, Barry Trotz took over for Bruce Boudreau as coach, and he brought in a new play style and had to convince Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Kuznetsov, all the leaders, to buy in. Because once you do that, the other players will follow. Four years later, the Capitals won the Stanley Cup.

Berube’s philosophy seems to be working so far this season and the playoffs. Even though people may say it’s boring or not as fun, those same people won’t be saying that if the Leafs can finally get over the hump.

Under Berube and his defensive strategy, this is the best, most well-rounded team we’ve had in years, and their performance has left fans wondering if this is finally Toronto’s year.

As of Game 2 of Round 2, the Leafs are in their most successful playoff run of the Auston Matthews era. A big thing Berube emphasizes is the emotionality of hockey. The game isn’t going to go exactly how you envision it. When things go wrong, how will you respond?

With the injury to Stolarz in Game 1, Woll had to come in for Game 2. He looked shaky at first, but by the end of the game looked exactly how he did against Boston last year. A lot of people say the biggest shift in a hockey game is one following a goal by either team. In Game 2, that’s what cost Florida as Marner scored the eventual game winner 17 seconds after the Anton Lundell tying goal.

Leafs fans say it every year, but 2025 may actually be THE YEAR.

Go Leafs Go.