How Much Longer Will Sidney Crosby Play?

Sidney Crosby extended his NHL record for most seasons averaging at least a point per game to 21 years, which, if you’re keeping score at home, means every season he’s played in the league. Crosby’s achievement is one that probably won’t be matched for a long time, if ever, and it raises a few questions.

How much longer will Crosby continue to play? How much longer can he maintain an elite level of performance?

To be honest, the first question likely has the same answer as the second. Given Crosby’s pride, he’s probably not going to keep playing if his game declines and he turns into a nostalgia act.

There is a lot to consider when projecting Crosby’s future. He is clearly in top physical condition and takes pride in being a gym rat. That said, Crosby’s physical skills have not yet declined, and that could remain the case for at least a few more seasons. Crosby doesn’t rely on speed or a skill-based game, though he still retains significant ability in both areas.

Nonetheless, his hockey IQ, puck skills in tight spaces, legendary lower-body strength, puck protection, and edge work are his bread and butter. His fierce backhand, which hasn’t lost any velocity, is another key asset. In fact, none of those skills has diminished, and they might not for a while.

The best comparison in most of these categories is probably another former Penguins player, Jaromír Jágr. Jágr was arguably the best puck protector in NHL history, and very few have ever viewed the game the way he did.

Now, that’s not to say Crosby will play into his 50s. But Jágr played in the NHL until he was 45, and he was still rather effective right up to the end. It wasn’t until his last few games with the Flames during the 2017-18 season that Jágr’s scoring really slowed down, as he scored just a goal and six assists in 22 games and finished his career halfway through that season. It was a bit of an anti-climactic ending to one of the greatest NHL careers ever, but Jágr still managed to go out on his own terms for the most part.

Therein lies a difference between Crosby and Jágr, and it rests solely on the perception of Crosby as a prideful man who cares deeply about winning and being elite. Jagr was willing to accept the fact that if he continued playing, he would no longer be an elite NHL player. He was still incredibly effective, but his skills had diminished. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Crosby does the same thing, especially given that his mentor, Mario Lemieux, walked away at 40 when he felt his game slip and the physical toll of playing became too much, plus an atrial fibrillation diagnosis.

That physical toll is another significant consideration for Crosby, given that his 21-year career has taken a physical and sometimes mental toll on the 38-year-old. Obviously, the recent knee injury at the Olympics is at the forefront of Crosby’s mind, but it is far from the only physical ailment he has faced. Crosby has experienced other lower-body injuries, facial injuries, and a documented long history of concussions. The concussions are particularly unpredictable, and it’s difficult to know what might happen if Crosby were to suffer another one this late in his career. This factor greatly influences his longevity in the game.

Perhaps the biggest factor is that the Penguins are actually good again, playing a high-flying, exciting brand of hockey that Crosby loves. Josh Yohe of The Athletic has previously written that he doesn’t believe Crosby will retire after his current contract, which expires next summer. That would mean Crosby could conceivably sign a deal that takes him through his age-40 season at a minimum. Crosby loves to win and has previously stated that it’s what drives him; if Pittsburgh is in a position to go on a run, he would want to be part of it.

Finally, the race is on for Crosby to become only the second player ever to reach 2,000 career points and to move into second place on the all-time scoring list. That position is currently held by Jágr, who is 162 points ahead of Crosby, who is now seventh overall in NHL scoring. With 1,759 points, Crosby needs 241 more to hit the 2,000 mark. It’s not impossible, but it will require some elite-level production from him well into his early 40s.

Crosby has averaged 1.09 points per game this season, down from his previous years’ production, which hovered around 1.13-1.14. If Crosby can maintain that rate and play 70 games a season over the next two years, he would reach approximately 153 points, putting him close to Jagr and less than 100 points shy of 2,000.

Of course, all of this remains speculation, and injuries can disrupt the projections, just as skill regression and age are inevitabilities. However, it’s not unreasonable to envision a scenario where Crosby plays three or four more seasons, which, if he stays healthy, is likely to see him reach 2,000 points. It could also coincide with a period when the Penguins are firmly in a win-now phase with their new core of young players, some of whom Crosby is already playing alongside and winning with.