How realistic are the Flames playoff hopes?

Friends, two things seem true roughly a third of the way through the 2025-26 National Hockey League season.

First and foremost, the Calgary Flames had a rough start to the season. Things did not go well for them at all. However, the other thing that’s true is that the Western Conference is collectively pretty rough this season. Which means that despite their clunker of an October, the Flames’ playoff hopes remain somewhat alive.

But with 49 games left on the docket, how realistic are the Flames’ playoff aspirations… really?

Record progression

Here’s a quick snapshot of things:

• At the end of Oct. 31, the Flames had a 2-8-2 record and six points. They were 8 points back of Los Angeles for 8th in the West in points percentage.
• At the end of Nov. 30, the Flames had a 9-14-4 record and 22 points. They were 7 points back of Winnipeg for 8th in the West in points percentage.
• At the end of Dec. 15, the Flames had a 13-16-4 record and 30 points. They are 5 points back of San Jose for 8th in the West in points percentage.

And yes, with a regulation win over San Jose on Tuesday night, the Flames could creep within 3 points of the final playoff spot.

The odds and projections

We’ll look at three different models: MoneyPuck, The Athletic and Evolving Hockey, and see both what they have the cut-off at for the final playoff spot and the Flames’ odds of making the playoffs.

• MoneyPuck has the last Western Conference playoff team at 88.2 points, so the Flames would need 89 points to surpass them. They have the Flames’ playoff odds at 16.9%.
• The Athletic has the last Western Conference playoff team at 89.7 points, so the Flames would need 90 points to surpass them. They have the Flames’ playoff odds at 4%.
• Evolving Hockey has the last Western Conference playoff team at 89.5 points, so the Flames would need 90 points to surpass them. They have the Flames’ playoff odds at 10.4%.

To reach 90 points, the Flames would need to play at a .612 clip over their remaining 49 games. Is that reasonable to expect from a team that’s gone .455 over 33 games this season and .571 over their last 21 outings?

And a team that, unless philosophy changes on either side, probably will part ways with Rasmus Andersson?

And a team that, according to the folks at Tankathon, has the toughest remaining schedule of any club in the NHL?

The Flames have played some really good hockey lately. They should be proud of themselves for inching closer and closer to the playoff pack after their tough October. But they still have a lot of hockey left to play, and arguably the roughest part of their schedule still ahead of them in terms of quality of competition.

We won’t rule anything out, but you can understand why the models and prognosticators are bearish on their playoff chances.