It’s easy to see why this Florida team is so dangerous offensively.

Florida’s third-line of Anton Lundell, Eetu Luostarinen, and Brad Marchand have arguably been the best line among all teams in this postseason. They have out-scored opponents at an outstanding rate of 10 to 2, and each of these three forwards has exactly 12 points at 5-on-5, tied with Leon Draisaitl for third in the playoffs and only four behind Connor McDavid for first. This trio has made it an absolute nightmare for opposing coaches to properly line-match against the Panthers.

Now, Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart’s raw goal differential on the top-line may not seem all that impressive, but their 59 percent expected goal differential suggests they are slightly underperforming and should improve. And furthermore, it should not take away from Barkov’s excellent shutdown utility, as Nikita Kucherov and Sebastian Aho had negative goal differentials when lined up against Barkov this postseason.

Thus, what the Panthers have often done throughout these playoffs is match Barkov’s line against opposition top lines to shut them down, while their third-line decimates opposition depth lines. Combine this with how well the Matthew Tkachuk / Sam Bennett second line and even their fourth-line have also played, and it’s easy to see why Florida’s forward group has been so dominant.

But, with all of that said, are there any potential weaknesses that the Oilers could exploit? I certainly think there are.

For one, it is certainly worth noting that Florida’s third line cooled down in the Eastern Conference Finals. After being on-ice for 13 goals in the first two rounds at 5-on-5, Marchand was only on-ice for two goals against Carolina. Additionally, Luostarinen left during Florida’s Game 5 to injury, and although Maurice stated he would be fine for Game 1 of the SCF, it could still very well have an impact on the line’s overall performance.

Furthermore, the Panthers’ current second-line of Tkachuk – Bennett – Verhaeghe were out-scored in a larger sample in the regular-season, and even in the playoffs, they hold an xG% of 51 percent; above-average, but certainly far from unstoppable.

And finally, the Oilers possess home-ice advantage in this series. For four out of a possible seven games, they have last change. If Kris Knoblauch plays his cards right, Barkov may not have enough of a chance to shut down Edmonton’s superstars.

So, how exactly should the Oilers line-match?

The Panthers aren’t the only team whose depth has taken a step forward this postseason. Take a look at Edmonton’s year-to-year goal differential without McDavid and Draisaitl on-ice at 5v5.

Though Edmonton also made the cup finals last year, they were out-scored at a horrendous rate of 12 to 21 without McDavid and Draisaitl. The dominance of their superstars, alongside the penalty-kill, managed to mask a lot of it, but nevertheless, Edmonton’s depth was one of several reasons why they ultimately couldn’t go all the way last playoffs.

However, this time around, the Oilers have out-scored opponents 21 to 10 without their two superstars leading up these cup finals. That’s an incredible 68 percent goal differential.

While it is worth noting that there’s been some puck luck involved, most of it has come on the defensive side; offensively, the depth is still at roughly ~18-19 expected goals for, so even if they had a league-average SH%, it remains a huge improvement.

But now the question is, how can Edmonton’s coaching staff use this to their advantage?

Before we try to answer that question, let’s go back to the 2024 cup finals, where the Oilers were 2-1 at Rogers Place but 1-3 in Amerant Bank Arena. A significant reason for this is that, when Maurice had last change in Florida, he hard-matched Barkov’s line and the Forsling – Ekblad pairing against McDavid. This strategy evidently worked, as McDavid had just a single 5-on-5 point against Barkov on-ice in the series, and the Oilers as a team combined for a mere two goals in Games 1, 2 and 7 combined.

However, the story was completely different at home. Knoblauch clearly made an attempt to keep Barkov away from McDavid, and at Edmonton, the Oilers wound up combining for a whopping 16 goals in 3 games.

Of course, it should certainly be worth noting that McDavid was reportedly playing through injuries in that run. I’d likely expect his production against Barkov to improve this time around. But regardless, Knoblauch needs to use last change to his advantage and keep the McDavid line away from Barkov to fully maximize his offence.

What Knoblauch mainly did at home last season is primarily play Adam Henrique’s line against Barkov, and in that small sample, it worked. Barkov’s line did not score any goals in Edmonton against Henrique, even badly losing the possession battle in those minutes.

In these playoffs, the Henrique line has out-scored opponents 9 to 5, a 64 percent goal share. While I have been critical of Henrique’s offensive production in the past, it is hard to deny that he has been excellent at preventing goals against. Even in the regular-season, Henrique had a positive goal differential (10 GF, 4 GA) against elite competition per PuckIQ.

Thus, at home, I believe it is best for Knoblauch to continue matching Henrique’s line against Barkov. From there, match McDavid’s line against the Bennett and Tkachuk line, and let Draisaitl handle Florida’s third line.

In terms of linemates, the Oilers have several options. Perhaps it could be beneficial to move Ryan Nugent-Hopkins down to the third-line, allowing both RNH and Henrique handle Barkov together, while McDavid could play with Jeff Skinner and Connor Brown – this is a line that had some excellent results at the end of the season – and Draisaitl could play with Vasily Podkolzin and Evander Kane.

But, with Zach Hyman out for the series, there’s an argument to be made to keep RNH on McDavid’s wing, ensuring the top-six is at its best offensively. You can then play Trent Frederic and Connor Brown, two fairly responsible defensive players and forecheckers, on Henrique’s wing. However, it would put significant individual pressure on Henrique to handle Barkov.

I personally prefer the former option, but both are fine options with pros and cons.

As for the road games, it might be intriguing to simply play 11 forwards and 7 defencemen. While the Panthers will have last change, and Maurice will try to get Barkov out against McDavid as much as possible, 11/7 gives the Oilers more forward line flexibility, allowing Knoblauch to occasionally double-shift McDavid or Draisaitl with the fourth-line. It can also allow them to pair McDavid and Draisaitl together for shifts against Barkov from time-to-time.

What impact will the defensive pairs have?

The best part of Florida’s game is their forecheck. They are perhaps the best team in the league at generating goals off turnovers and dump-ins. It can be a nightmare for opposition defencemen to break the puck out against this forecheck, and it was evident in the previous cup finals.

With Evan Bouchard on-ice in the 2024 cup finals, the Oilers controlled 65 percent of the 5v5 scoring chances. But without Bouchard, they controlled a mere 35 percent of the chances. Darnell Nurse, Cody Ceci, and Vincent Desharnais all mightily struggled to get the puck out of their own end with efficiency, and it clearly cost them.

However, this time around, Edmonton’s puck-moving from the backend after Bouchard has massively improved with the additions of Jake Walman and John Klingberg. Without Bouchard in these playoffs, Edmonton has out-scored opponents 20 to 12, a 63 percent goal differential. This is an enormous advantage that the current Oilers team possesses in comparison to last year’s team.

In terms of ideal pairings, the Oilers have largely played Walman and Klingberg as a pair together, but for this series, I wonder about splitting them up. You could potentially run pairs of Ekholm – Bouchard, Nurse – Walman, and Kulak – Klingberg. This ensures that one of Bouchard, Walman, and Klingberg are on-ice at all times at 5-on-5, which could make a significant impact for the Oilers’ forward lines offensively and defensively.

11F/7D is also an extremely viable option considering how well Troy Stecher has played, and again, it grants the Oilers line flexibility, especially on the road.

Final Thoughts

Heading into the 2025 cup finals, there’s lot of reason for optimism if you’re the Oilers.

For one, the depth has significantly improved. This is not a two-man team anymore; 19 different Oiler skaters have scored a goal, and for the first time in the McDavid and Draisaitl era, all four lines are scoring threats.

Additionally, Leon Draisaitl will be healthy this time. Last season, he was reportedly playing through a broken rib and finger, and did not score a single goal in the cup finals. Losing Zach Hyman to injury will hurt, but perhaps in comparison to the 2024 finals, a healthy Draisaitl could more than make up for it. Draisaitl could especially make a significant difference driving his own line on the road, where I’d imagine Maurice would try to match Barkov against McDavid, potentially opening up offensive opportunity for Draisaitl against Florida’s other lines.

And finally, as mentioned above, they have home-ice advantage, which could make a massive difference if utilized correctly, alongside a significantly improved defensive core, one that I would say is definitely better than Florida’s.

Game 1 will be on Wednesday night in Rogers Place. It’s time for the Oilers to finally go all the way.