How the Red Wings’ 2018 Draft Set Back Their Rebuild

It can take some time before the promise of draft day is fulfilled. The Red Wings welcomed two players (Albert Johansson and Elmer Söderblom) to the team this season that were part of the organization’s 2019 draft class, proving that sometimes patience really does pay off. But when that promise is never fulfilled, it can have a ripple effect that reverberates for years, especially for an organization that is committed to “building through the draft”.

Jonatan Berggren

Now let’s look at the lone player remaining from the Red Wings’ 2018 draft class: Jonatan Berggren. The Swedish winger just completed his second full NHL season, notching 12 goals and 24 points in 75 games this season. In total, he has 29 goals and 58 points in 154 games. He was the 33rd pick of the draft, and is producing offense at a higher rate than Veleno, who was selected three spots before Berggren.

Berggren, who turns 25 in July, is a restricted free agent this summer. He has proven himself capable of manufacturing offense in the NHL, but he hasn’t been able to maintain anything more than a limited role. He won’t break the bank on his next contract, but the question of his future with Detroit isn’t about money, it’s about whether or not the Red Wings are maximizing their roster with him on it.

This season, Berggren was essentially a less-effective version of Daniel Sprong with the Red Wings of last season. Berggren’s value on the ice was tied almost exclusively to the offensive zone, but his offensive totals this season pale in comparison to Sprong’s from last season (18 goals, 43 points). Despite his production, the Red Wings still moved on from Sprong last summer. Given his overall lack of impact, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Detroit moved on from Berggren this summer, too.

If the Red Wings do decide to part ways with Berggren, it will mean that Detroit effectively got nothing out of the 2018 draft because not only are their draftees not in the organization anymore, but those players also did not yield any other assets, such as through a trade.

Failure to Maximize Assets

One of the many tasks facing the front office of any professional sports team is to maximize the assets at their disposal. This usually means developing the team’s players and prospects by putting them in a position to succeed, and then making the decision of whether to commit to them long-term or trade them to another team for additional assets, usually draft picks and prospects.

Zadina was never traded. In fact, he departed the Red Wings via a contract termination because he wanted a bigger opportunity than what he had in Detroit; this caused the player to miss out on millions of dollars and the Red Wings to effectively receive zero value out of what could have been a foundational draft selection. Failing to extract value out of a premium pick like that can set an organization back a year or more, and we are seeing evidence of that in Detroit.

Veleno was traded to the Chicago Blackhawks at this year’s trade deadline. In exchange, the Red Wings received 35-year-old forward Craig Smith and 33-year-old goaltender Petr Mrázek, with the latter being under contract for next season. We’ll see how things play out, but the return on the 30th pick in the 2018 draft isn’t much better.

With only Berggren to show for the 2018 draft, the Red Wings’ rebuild was stunted just as it began. They have done well with most of their first round selections since then, and it looks like they made up a little ground the following year added Johansson, Söderblom and Moritz Seider into the organization in 2019.

However, it only emphasizes the point of where the Red Wings were when Yzerman took over in 2019. The deficiencies of the NHL roster were evident, but their prospect pool was effectively empty as well. The lack of talent throughout their organization is usually only seen in newly-minted expansion teams that have to fill a roster using every other team’s scraps, and an organization with picks in a draft that only happens once a year.

When you’re that far behind the 8-ball, the path back to glory will always be long and winding. No team is immune to setbacks, but what the Red Wings did in 2018 is roughly equivalent to leaving for a road trip, and driving over a large nail right after leaving the neighborhood.

When you look at it like that, it’s no wonder we still haven’t reached the end of that road trip.