If Vladislav Gavrikov hangs up, who could the LA Kings call?

The big Russian was crucial to the team’s early-season success in Drew Doughty‘s absence. After Jordan Spence struggled to maintain top-pair minutes next to Mikey Anderson, it was Gavrikov who moved to his offside to provide a dominant shut-down pair. In the playoffs, Gavrikov was again asked to play his right side with head coach Jim Hiller not entrusting young defensemen Spence and Brandt Clarke, Gavrikov slotted next to Joel Edmundson in the team’s first-round loss to the Edmonton Oilers.

What type of contact could Gavrikov command? Evolving Hockey has the most-likely contract coming in at four years worth $5.6M AAV.

This would be a stunning contract, in my opinion. If this is what he would be open to signing for, I think he’d have already inked a deal with the LA Kings.

The projection from AFP Analytics seems much more likely. They have his most likely contract coming in at seven years at an AAV of $7.6. That’s more around where I think he gets on the open market. At that number, I’m not sure it’s wise for the Kings to retain Gavrikov.

So, what happens if Gavrikov hits the open market and takes his talents elsewhere? In addition to a top-line winger, that would also leave a top-four-sized hole on a defense group that could use an injection of talent.

Here we’ll take a look at some potential Gavrikov replacements via trade or free agency.

Unrestricted Free Agents

For purposes of this exercise, we’ll stick with left-shot defensemen. Aaron Ekblad is an enticing UFA defenseman on the right side, but, at least for now, the LA Kings are well stocked there with Drew Doughty, Spence, and Clarke.

Matt Grzelcyk, 31 years old, Evolving Hockey Contract Projection: 3 years, $4M AAV

After spending his entire career in Boston, Matt Grzelcyk signed a one-year deal with the Pittsburgh Penguins. While logging top-four minutes, Grzelcyk picked up 40 points (one goal, 39 assists) for the Penguins. My first thought was this wasn’t someone I was all that excited about, but when I look at tracking data from his final two years in Boston compared to this past year in Pittsburgh, perhaps the environment in Pittsburgh has clouded my judgment.

Via All Three Zones

I’m still not racing to acquire Grzelcyk, but maybe getting him out of Pittsburgh isn’t the worst thing in the world?

Dmitry Orlov, 33, Evolving Hockey Contract Projection: 3 years, $4.5M AAV

Orlov is going to be 34 years old at the start of his next contract, so I’m not interested in a three-year deal. That said, I am open to a one-year deal if the market sours on Orlov. Be it with his legs or his passing, Orlov is a zone-exit machine.

If the term is right, I think Orlov’s abilities next to Clarke or Spence would be pretty enticing and the type of D pair the LA Kings should probably lean into.

Ivan Provorov, 28, Evolving Hockey Contract Projection: 5 years, $6.7M AAV

The LA Kings had been linked to Provorov back in his days in Philadelphia (and ironically have been retaining just over $2 million in salary on him for the past two seasons). For me, the idea of Provorov has always been better than the actual player that Provorov is. I don’t think he’s ever quite grown into the player at least I thought he could be. That said, he’s been a top-four defenseman wherever he’s been. He’s been a pretty consistent 30+ point producer, but at the contract projection above, there’s a lot to be desired.

Of these three mentioned here, he’s the only one over 6 feet tall. Rob Blake isn’t the GM anymore, so we’ll see how much that matters.

Trade Targets

Bowen Byram, 23, Buffalo Sabres

Bo Byram has been a long-time favorite of mine as he has the skillset that I like in a defenseman. The problem is, his underlying metrics have never been very good.

Byram, who is a Restricted Free Agent (RFA), had career highs in assists (31) and points (38) in his first full season with the Buffalo Sabres, but that’s about all the positive that can be mentioned. He really benefited from playing with Rasmus Dahlin (via Natural Stat Trick).

All that said, Byram is a talent I can’t quit. Evolving Hockey projects his contract at a healthy $8M AAV on an eight-year deal if he were to re-sign in Buffalo. On a six-year deal, they project him at a $7.6M AAV. A team may have to commit to Byram if they’re trading for him. The Sabres already have Dahlin and Owen Power as left-shot defensemen, so Byram could very much be on the block.

Buffalo could use some help in their top/middle-six forward group, so could a package starting with fellow RFA Alex Laferriere get the Sabres’ attention? Would the Kings want to do that?

(A quick aside, while we’re on Buffalo, the oft-injured Mattias Samuelsson has five years left at a $4.25M AAV. The 25-year-old is 6’4″, 227 lbs, and a contract the Sabres would surely love to offload.)

Vince Dunn, 28, Seattle Kraken

Hockey Royalty’s Russell Morgan is trying to speak Vince Dunn into existence, and I am here for it. Dunn is a top-pair caliber left-shot defenseman who is signed for two more years at a $7.35M AAV and does have a 16-team no-trade list.

Seattle is in a pretty tough spot as a franchise right now, so I’d expect them to be looking to make some changes this offseason. That said, I think Dunn is probably too valuable for them to trade him. That would seem to signal the team preparing to blow up the roster, and I’m not convinced that’s where they are.

I’m certainly making the phone call if I’m Holland, but for a bona fide top-pair D who is under contract, you might have to bring yourselves to trade Brandt Clarke (and then some) to net Dunn.

Adam Pelech, 30, New York Islanders

At first glance, a 30-year-old defenseman who scored zero goals (and who played for the Islanders) just can’t sound very attractive. But dig in just a little bit deeper, and you’ve got yourself a quietly effective middle-pair defenseman.

Pelech may not score much (one goal in the past two seasons combined) and he may not produce much (career-high 28 points in the 2021-22 season) but he’s a rock solid defensive defenseman who, unlike the defensive defensemen we’re used to seeing in Los Angeles, Pelech can move the puck. His passing and zone exit tracking data are very good. Defensively, he grades out at least as good, if not better, than Gavrikov, and he’s far more adept at transporting the puck.

He’ll be 31 at the start of next season, and he’s signed for four more years at $5.75M AAV. There’s certainly some risk there given his age. But consider, Gavrikov will likely command that contract and then some, and he’ll end up being a similar age by the end of his deal. While they’re both elite defenders, only Pelech grades out well with the puck.

If Pelech can maintain some puck transport abilities, he’d be an upgrade to Gavrikov. At worst, if that starts to fade as he ages, he could settle into a capable defensive defenseman.

The Islanders are currently searching for their next GM, and after some selling at last year’s deadline, they could be a team that’s in transition and trying to get younger. Pelech could be costly given how effective he’s been, but also that he’s under contract for a few more years. LA would likely need to part with a first-round pick and/or a high prospect or young NHL roster player.

This isn’t an exhaustive list, of course, of who LA could target, but these are some that caught my eye. I don’t think LA would be any worse for the wear with most of these players replacing Gavrikov, and they could possibly do it at a lesser cost.

The LA Kings’ new GM will make the call to Gavrikov, but Ken Holland shouldn’t be too bothered if Gavrikov doesn’t pick up.

Main Photo via NHL Trade Talk