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Insider Explains His McDavid '50/50' Extension Comments

Originally posted on NHL Trade Talk | Last updated Oct 4, 2025 9:42 PM ET

The future of Connor McDavid’s next contract remains one of the most talked-about storylines in the NHL as the regular season is just days away. Some believe the announcement of an extension is coming. Others say this could drag out well into the 2025-26 season. TSN insider Darren Dreger said he’s 50/50 that McDavid re-signs at all.

Speaking on Barn Burner (Oct. 3), Dreger said, “If it happens, and I’m still 50/50 that it is going to happen… But if it gets done in-season, I still feel like it’s more likely going to be a shorter contract, like a two-year term.”

The hosts of the show, who were excited to hear such a declaration because they’re fans of the Calgary Flames, asked why Dreger was so unsure. They admitted it was the lowest odds they’ve heard to this point that McDavid will stay with the Oilers.

Dreger explained that there are plenty of reasons to believe an extension is still possible. He cited Leon Draisaitl signing a long-term contract, McDavid’s wife having a business, and the superstar liking the city and the Oilers as an organization. At the same time, Dreger believed if the odds were any better, the deal would already be done. “There’s lots of reasons why it should be higher than 50/50,” he said. “But if it’s higher than 50/50, why hasn’t he done it already?”

It’s an intriguing statement, but it’s based on Dreger’s best guess, not factual information that has him so down the middle. Oilers Now host Bob Stauffer is sticking with his 102% chance that McDavid re-signs in Edmonton. Most insiders also believe the deal will be finalized, but many are uncertain about the specific terms or dollar figure.

If McDavid does extend in-season, a short-term deal seems to be leading the way in terms of predictions from most analysts. A massive long-term commitment is still possible, but it seems less likely, given the time it has taken to secure this extension and considering the rising salary cap.

Who Does Dreger Like Better for McDavid Than the Oilers?

Dreger then added that he believes the Los Angeles Kings will have strong ties to McDavid as Ken Holland was close to the Oilers’ captain. He also believes the Dallas Stars offer a lot that McDavid might find attractive, including new coach Glen Gulutzan and a young core just coming into their own and ready to content for some time.

This article first appeared on NHL Trade Talk and was syndicated with permission.

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