Is Emmitt Finnie the Next Dylan Larkin?

It doesn’t really surprise me when the first round picks that Detroit has turn out to be solid players. Not to say there is never busts, but I’m not exactly impressed anymore when a top 15 pick turns out to be a solid middle-six guy. This season, a handful of those lottery picks have really struggled. Nate Danielson, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, and Axel Sandin-Pellikka weren’t able to hold roster spots over pretty mediocre competition. Last year’s breakout star, Marco Kasper, who was taken 8th in his draft, hasn’t been great this season either. Fortunately for Detroit, 7th round pick Emmitt Finnie has been an unlikely hero when it comes to rookie performances. At every point this season, Finnie has shown that he can hold water against the best in the NHL.

As a matter of fact, he’s been so good, I’m willing to say he’s the closest thing the Red Wings have to the next Dylan Larkin.

The Archetype Similarities:

Let’s start with the build. Both Emmitt Finnie and Dylan Larkin have really similar frames. Both are 6’1″ and about 200 pounds, with Larkin being slightly heavier. The size is pretty much exactly what you’d look for in an NHL center. The height gives the reach and stability to hold their own defensively. It also keeps them small enough to be mobile, as centers tend to be the primary puck carriers on their line.

Their skill sets are also pretty similar. The most noticeable one being the skating. Both of them are obviously very quick, and it’s probably both of their most game-breaking skills. But they also both skate nearly identical lengths on each shift. Emmitt Finnie skates 9.73 miles per/60, and Dylan Larkin skates 9.8. Both of them have no problem using their speed to cover a ton of ground.

Admittedly, Larkin shot the puck nearly twice as much in his rookie season, and Finnie has nearly double the hits that Dylan Larkin had. But that doesn’t mean Larkin is better offensively, per se. Despite having 35 seconds less per game on the power play, Finnie already matched Dylan Larkin’s rookie total of 4 power play goals and exceeded his 5 power play points with 8.

It also doesn’t mean Larkin is softer than Finnie is by much. Larkin was just on a line with Justin Abdelkader, who had pretty much the sole purpose of getting into the dirty areas, so it wasn’t really Larkin’s job.

Both of them were also drafted as centers who played the bulk of their rookie seasons as left wings.

Emmitt Finnie possesses the same traits as a two-way, speedy center that can create offense on the power play that Dylan Larkin has. But the similarities don’t end there.

Statistical Similarities:

I’ll start by addressing the elephant in the room. Emmitt Finnie isn’t going to finish the season anywhere near Dylan Larkin’s 45 points in his rookie season. Finnie would be lucky to get 30. But the production for Larkin occurred in a very different context. Dylan Larkin spent the vast majority of his rookie season alongside the team’s best players. Finnie has spent the season split between the top line and some iteration of a depth line.

The difference came largely from Emmitt Finnie just not getting points despite being on a productive line. He has a 54% individual points percentage so far this season, meaning he’s only getting points on about half the goals that go in while on the ice. Dylan Larkin had 64% by comparison.

I already alluded to the similar power play totals, but there is more to it than that. Both of them have shown similar shooting talent in their rookie season, both shooting 10.5%. Supporting the idea that Finnie might develop as a scorer if he can shoot the puck a bit more.

Both of them were similarly used as face-off men in times of need for their team. Larkin’s rookie season saw him win 41 draws, and Finnie has done the same to this point. Both of them did it while winning about 42% of the draws.

The point totals are also a little more similar when taking usage and ice time into account. During the first half of the season, when Finnie was averaging 16:50 of ice time, he had 19 points. Now, down in the bottom six playing about 14:05 per game, he only has 8 points in his last 30. So it’s fair to say if he stayed in the top six his entire rookie season, he would be much closer to the numbers Larkin put up. Especially if given some extra power play time.

Emmitt Finnie vs. Dylan Larkin

Between Danielson, Kasper, and now Finnie, Detroit has plenty of kicks at the can for a true top-six center. But with Danielson being a year older than Finnie without proving he can keep up and produce at the NHL level, and Marco Kasper having struggled for 75% of his career in the NHL so far, Finnie has become a sneaky frontrunner to become the team’s next top-six center.

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