Is Nikolaj Ehlers the big splash the Edmonton Oilers need this offseason?

With rumblings that the Edmonton Oilers are looking to move Viktor Arvidsson, Evander Kane has already been traded, and the unlikely scenario that they re-sign Jeff Skinner, top-six wingers are going to be a main target for the team in July. Those are not always the easiest to come by.

Edmonton will be needing wingers with speed and scoring ability, to help compliment their star centres and improve on what was ended up being one of the slower teams in the league last season.

There are a couple of players that fit this description. One is Brock Boeser, who is expected to leave the Vancouver Canucks this offseason. Another is Nikolaj Ehlers, who may be available come July 1.

With a great combination of speed, scoring ability, consistency, and ability to create offence off of the rush, Ehlers might be a perfect fit alongside Leon Draisaitl.

Who is Nikolaj Ehlers?

Ehlers has spent his entire career thus far in Winnipeg, originally being the ninth overall pick in the 2014 NHL Draft. He made his debut in 2015–16, scoring 13 goals with a total of 38 points.

Since then, he has become one of the most reliable and consistent producers in the NHL. He is almost guaranteed to put up points around a 60 point per 82 game pace and has scored 20 or more goals in eight of the past nine seasons.

Ehlers does not often take on a huge role with the team, usually averaging around 16 minutes of ice time per game in total. He plays a lot on the power play, a testament to his skillset and offensive talents, but sees next to no time on the penalty kill.

Ehlers is best known as an offensive play driver who can score and act as a set up man equally well.

One concern with him is is health. Ehlers spends a lot of time injured, missing an average of 14 games per season over the past seven years. Including three seasons in which he missed more than 20 games.

Nikolaj Ehlers fit with the Edmonton Oilers

Given what the Oilers are searching for this offseason, Ehlers should be a prime target if he were to make it to the open market on July 1. His skillset is exactly what should work in the top-six, and most of what he provides are things that the front office will be looking for to help boost the roster.

The ideal scenario is that Ehlers would slot in alongside Leon Draisaitl on the second line and give him a proper linemate to regularly play with. One with major offensive potential.

Ehlers is a bit younger than the players rumoured to be on the move, and he is a fast player. Both of those being traits that general manager Stan Bowman specified as important for this offseason’s moves.

One intriguing aspect of Ehlers’ future is that he has never seemed to truly break out in the NHL. It could be some final missing piece in his skillset. It could be his utilization, which frequently has him underutilized in Winnipeg despite being one of the most productive scorers on the team in the ice time he does get. Or it could be that this is his ceiling.

But regardless, a near guaranteed 60-point player to play in the top-six, provide another playmaking option for either power play unit, and a faster, more dynamic player are a clear fit for the Oilers.

Is he affordable?

With the right moves, the Oilers could probably make this contract work. Assuming that Arvidsson is also moveable and is sent out in a cap dump style trade, they should free up the cap space required to offer something to Ehlers. The bigger question is if it would be enough.

Projections place Ehlers as likely to receive around $8M per season. If the Oilers also trade Arvidsson, most of the approximately $9M in freed up cap space would be sent towards Evan Bouchard and Draisaitl’s extension kicking in. Ehlers, if he were to get close to these projections, would require a bit more to be freed up. Especially if the Oilers are trying to upgrade in net as well.

A more realistic scenario would be Ehlers taking less money, closer to $7M, and that would give the team a bit more wiggle room. This would also require the team to move on from Adam Henrique and run with a roster that has no healthy scratches.

So, because of how close the numbers are, it is probably affordable. But it would require some fancy cap maneuvering to make it happen. And it could come at the expense of not being able to properly pursue upgrades in net.

Overall, Ehlers appears to be a perfect fit in the Oilers’ top-six. A wonderful blend of playmaking and scoring abilities with the ideal traits of being fast and slightly younger than some of the options they’ve had last season. The affordability of the situation may put it in jeopardy, however, but with a perfect scenario and some astute cap management, they might be able to make it work for player and team.