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New York Islanders defenseman Matthew Schaefer. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Islanders’ Disappointing Season Alleviated by Schaefer’s Breakout

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers | By Conor Power | Last updated Apr 14, 2026 8:45 AM ET

The New York Islanders have officially missed the playoffs. Losing on both halves of a back-to-back against the Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens has condemned the Isles to their fate. They are going to miss the playoffs for a second straight year. It’s disappointing for a team that spent so long in playoff spots in the Metropolitan Division to trip up at the final hurdles. However, one massive positive to take away from this season is the breakout of a new Islanders’ generational talent.

The Breakout Superstar

Matthew Schaefer has not just been everything he was projected to be; he’s been better. That’s an incredible achievement for someone who was so highly touted. The first overall pick in the 2025 NHL Draft is going to walk his way to the Calder Trophy as the league’s best rookie. He’s going to win it at a canter. He’s rewritten history books and has become a must-see for fans of any NHL team.

Schaefer has scored 23 goals and 36 assists for 59 points with one game to go. Whether he breaks the 60-point mark or not, he’s been the cream of the rookie crop this season. Had the Islanders made the playoffs, Schaefer would have had a case for a few Norris Trophy votes as the league’s best defenseman. He has been a great prospect, and at the young age of 18, he’s only going to get better.

History Rewritten

Already, Schaefer has the 11th most points of any rookie defenseman in NHL history. Only 10 guys have ever reached 60, and he has a chance to do that. He’s also tied the rookie defenseman goal-scoring total, tying Brian Leetch. If you do not remember Leetch as a player, he was decent. He’s only in the Hockey Hall of Fame, so he did something right during his career. Oh, and when Leetch was a rookie, he was older than Schaefer is.

In the history of the NHL, there have been 77 seasons where a defenseman has scored 23 goals or more. That’s not just rookies, that’s ever. Since the NHL was founded in 1917, it’s happened 77 times. Schaefer joined that list as a teenager. Only one defenseman has more goals in the NHL than the Islanders’ new face of the franchise, and that’s Jakob Chychrun in Washington. What Schaefer is doing is incredible, considering he’s brand-new to the league.

Schaefer is going to win the Calder Trophy. He’s the overwhelming favorite, and he’s rewriting history for the Islanders. Only Denis Potvin, Jean Potvin, Stefan Persson, and Noah Dobson have tallied more points in a season for the Islanders. That’s not rookies, just defensemen. Schaefer is going to change Islanders history books, and if that is all you take away from this season, it is a cause for optimism.

Sustainability

We’ve seen in the past that some defensemen break into the league, but they trail off. Analytically, there’s no reason for fear with Schaefer. He averages 2.83 goals for per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time (GF/60), which is fourth on the team, but the team leader, Bo Horvat, averages 2.87, so it’s not like there is a chasm between Schaefer and the team lead.

His expected goals for per 60 (xGF/60) according to Natural Stat Trick is 2.99. He’s actually underperforming slightly. If he can improve his conversion rate, this player will torment teams for 20 years. He’s got all the talent to make himself one of the best defensemen in the NHL offensively. He’ll throw up points for fun if he can continue like he has this season.

Defensive Capabilities

Defensemen are special players because they’re tasked with playing at both ends of the rink. If you are inclined to like the plus/minus stat, Schaefer is a plus-14. I find it a poor indicator of defensive success, given that an offensively gifted defenseman could outscore his problems to hide his defensive frailties. There is no denying that Schaefer is certainly gifted offensively, so how does he hold up defensively?

The Islanders’ young defenseman has a goals against per 60 (GA/60) at 5-on-5 of 2.23. However, he’s playing in front of one of the best netminders in the NHL. His expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) is 2.96. That’s a little concerning, but given that Schaefer is just a rookie, he’ll get better at it the more he plays. The best way to learn is on the job. Plus, it’s not like the goaltender he plays in front of is going anywhere.

Does this ease the pain of missing the postseason? No. Only winning cures the ills of losing. That does not mean that there is nothing to take away from this season. Schaefer has become one of the best players in the league, and he’ll get better. The Islanders’ new generation of talent is on the way, and they’re already fighting to get back into the mix in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. The future is bright on Long Island, even if today feels a little bleak.