The New York Islanders are starting to turn over the roster and aren’t just running it back as they did under Lou Lamoriello. They no longer have a veteran-heavy group with no young talent, and many roster spots are up for grabs. With many prospects looking to earn a spot, there’s no telling what the Islanders will look like on opening night.
One of the prospects who can make the lineup on day one is Calum Ritchie. The center was acquired in the Brock Nelson trade, and after spending last season in the Ontario Hockey League (OHL), he’s looking to join the NHL and not settle for the American Hockey League (AHL).
If Ritchie’s ready, there will be a chain reaction. The player directly impacted is Jean-Gabriel Pageau, the middle-six center slated to lead the second line as of now. Pageau, however, can be anywhere in the lineup and possibly the expendable skater for first-year general manager (GM) Mathieu Darche, depending on how everything plays out.
If Ritchie starts his career on the third line, the Islanders can keep Pageau as the second-line center. Ideally, Mathew Barzal centers the second line while Bo Horvat centers the top line (and Pageau is on the third line). However, if Ritchie is ready, Barzal can move to the top line and play on Horvat’s wing.
The chain reaction from this is that right winger Kyle Palmieri would then play on the second line. Then, Simon Holmstrom, who projects as the second-line right wing forward, moves to the left wing of the third line. Once all that gets sorted out, the Islanders must sort through the depth forwards to find a reliable bottom six.
Pageau isn’t the type of player the Islanders will move to the wing, and the same is true about Ritchie. Both skaters are best at the center position and will play there, just on different lines. So, if Ritchie is ready, Pageau is moving up to the second line where he can play alongside Palmieri and either recently signed Jonathan Drouin, Anders Lee, or Anthony Duclair.
There’s also a possibility that Ritchie not only is ready but is a top-six center right from the opening puck drop. He has the talent to eventually become that, and might surprise the Islanders out of training camp. That would keep Pageau on the third line, his natural position.
Pageau is a valuable part of the forward unit and has been since the Islanders acquired him at the 2020 Trade Deadline. That said, he’s not good enough to carry a second line. As a third-line center, he adds much-needed depth to the forward unit and gives the Islanders an edge (as they typically have a better third line than their opposition).
The chain reaction from Ritchie centering the second line is how the bottom six looks. Between Pageau, Casey Cizikas, Duclair, Emil Heineman, Maxim Tsyplakov, and Maxim Shabonov, there are only six spots in the lineup, with seven forwards fighting for those spots. So, one of those skaters might be expendable or remain out of the lineup and eventually get sent down to the AHL.
This situation is only relevant if the season plays out a certain way. The Islanders must be out of playoff position or have a rough season that requires Darche to do more than a retool on the fly. More importantly, Pageau, who is a free agent at the end of the season, must make it clear he isn’t re-signing. If that’s the case, the Islanders will move him even if Ritchie isn’t playing great (as they can give him the ice time for the final weeks of the season with the hopes of developing him).
Pageau has an interesting trade market if the Islanders want to move him. He’s a depth skater and on the decline. At the same time, he’s a two-way center, and playoff teams love centers, especially for a Cup run. So, the Islanders can move him while also helping out the retool.
Injuries are an inevitable part of the game. The Islanders have seen recent seasons take a hit, with notable skaters going down in the middle of the season, and often it’s because they don’t have reinforcements. With Pageau, Ritchie, and Drouin all capable of centering a line, the Islanders have options when that injury occurs.
There’s also a good chance Ritchie, for as promising as he is as a prospect, isn’t ready for the NHL or goes through a slump. If either happens, the Islanders will send him down to the AHL to continue developing and suddenly have a glaring need for Pageau on the third line.
Pageau is the expendable forward on the Islanders and one of the few who can bring in a good return in a trade. However, the Islanders still need him in the lineup, at least for this season.
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