Jets’ Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for 2025-26 Season

In a best-case scenario, Lambert — an offensively-adept centre and one of the organization’s top prospects who has spent the past two season with the Manitoba Moose — proves ready to be a viable middle-six NHL forward and that Perfetti and Vilardi — who are both coming off career seasons with 50 and 61 points, respectively — will continue to blossom and improve on the top six. Nyquist, Pearson, and Toews, who all have a lot of experience, will also make up for some in some of the offense Ehlers provided.

On the blue line, the best-case scenario would be that the defensive core — led by Morrissey but also featuring Dylan DeMelo, Dylan Samberg, and Neal Pionk on the top four — plays in a similarly-stingy fashion to last season when they were key in making life a bit easier for Hellebuyck and helping him capture his second-straight William M. Jennings Trophy.

Morrissey and DeMelo are extremely consistent from season to season, but Samberg and Pionk both had better 2024-25 campaigns than expected with Samberg playing way above expectations in his first season with a top-four assignment and Pionk having something of a renaissance after a couple seasons of defensive inconsistencies.

On special teams, the best-case scenario is that the Jets’ power play is among the league’s most dangerous regimes again (they finished first in the league last season by operating at a 28.90 per cent clip) and that the penalty kill finishes at least in the middle of the pack again (they finished 13th last season by killing 79.40 per cent of their penalties.).

In net, the best-case scenario is that Hellebuyck displays the same or a similar dominant form that won him the 2025 Hart Trophy and two-straight Vezinas and backup Eric Comrie plays as solidly behind Hellebuyck as he did last season.

Worst-Case Scenario: Losing Ehlers Cannot Be Overcome, Special Teams Struggle, Jets End Up on Playoff Bubble

On the flip side, there are a lot of things that, if they happen, could lead to the Jets being in a fight for a wild-card spot down the stretch with some combination of the Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Minnesota Wild, and St. Louis Blues sitting in the Central Division’s top three spots.

The youth and veterans called upon to take on bigger roles could fail to adequately make up for Ehlers’ absence. If Lambert, Alex Iafallo, Adam Lowry upon his return from hip surgery, Vladislav Namestnikov, Nino Niederreiter, Nyquist, Pearson, and Toews have persistent struggles, the Jets’ offense will be worse than last season considering they are among those who will be responsible for making up Ehlers’ 63 points of production in aggregate.

In a worst-case scenario, the Jets’ power play and penalty kill would both drop a number of percentage points in efficiency and be more akin to 2023-24 (when they were 22nd on the power play and 21st on the penalty kill) than last season. It’s all well and good to be incredible at five on five, which the Jets have generally been over the past two seasons, but a team good at even strength can still lose a game only because of poor special teams. The relatively-few minutes a team may spend up or down a man (or two) on any given night can make a disproportionate impact on the final score.

In net, a worst-case scenario would see Hellebuyck and/or Comrie’s play regress or a longer-term injury to Hellebuyck that forces Comrie, who has never been a number-one guy, to shoulder the majority of the workload and one of the three young Moose goaltenders, none of whom have any NHL experience, to back him up.

A worse-case scenario would also include long-term injuries to, or unexpected down seasons from, star players. Most of the stars have been fairly consistent throughout their careers and none are at risk of declining due to age yet, but a rough season for someone is always in the realm of possibility. Injuries are something the team cannot control, but always threaten to disrupt chemistry or derail a campaign completely (Hellebuyck going down would likely do the latter.) The Jets do have a few players in Perfetti and Vilardi who have had a hard time staying healthy (but both played career-highs in games last season and Perfetti played all 82.)

This author doesn’t believe the Jets will miss the playoffs even in the worst-case scenario, but finishing in a wild-card spot would leave them with an unfavourable matchup with either the Western Conference’s or Central’s top team. This would also mean they would not have home-ice advantage in the postseason, not ideal considering they went 0-6 and were outscored 27-9 on the road in the 2025 playoffs.

Jets Set Up For Success In Many Ways, But Questions Remain

Professional hockey is not played on paper and sometimes the unexpected can happen. As we can see, there’s a lot that could go well and a lot of ways the Jets are set up for success, but also some question marks and some things that could go badly.

Ultimately, the Jets’ season will likely land in the middle of our two scenarios, with some things going smoothly and other things not. No one has clear skies for all 82 games. Time will ultimately tell whether the Jets will be able to replicate their success or will take a step back.