Jets Have $24 Million & 3 Big Questions Ahead of 2025 Free Agency

If Ehlers signs elsewhere — ideally in the Eastern Conference so the Jets only have to face him twice a year — the question becomes how Cheveldayoff will pivot to minimize the loss of his most-gamebreaking player. Will he try to sign a higher-profile UFA despite Winnipeg not being a desirable market for many, try to make a trade for someone with term, or bank on prospects such as Nikita Chibrikov, Parker Ford, and Brad Lambert being ready for full-time NHL roles next season?

2: Will High-Profile Restricted Free Agents Sign Long Term?

Also in great position to cash in after career seasons are the Jets’ two highest-profile restricted free agents (RFAs), Gabriel Vilardi and Dylan Samberg.

Vilardi set career highs in goals (27), assists (34), and points (61) in 71 games this season and added one goal and three assists in nine playoff games. A “freak” upper-body injury he suffered in late March prevented him from having his first-ever completely-healthy campaign and caused him to miss the first four games of the postseason.

He played first-line right wing alongside Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele for most of his second season with the Jets and they were one of the league’s most productive lines in combining for 245 points. Vilardi also featured on the first power-play unit in the net-front position and his unique and skillset was on display prominently there once again — his wizardry around the net and his puck-handling ability in tight make him unlike any other player the Jets have had in the 2.0 era.

Samberg, meanwhile, continued to blossom and excelled in his first full season on the second defensive pairing, recording a career-high 20 points (six goals, 14 assists) in 60 games and a plus-34 rating in 21:08 of average ice time. He also blocked a career-high 120 shots, showing his fearlessness. He added three assists in 13 playoff games.

Perhaps best illustrating his value on the Jets’ blue line is the fact the team went 45-13-2 with him in the lineup and 11-9-2 without him (he missed 21 games with a broken foot.)

Both players are coming off two-year bridge deals — Vilardi’s carried a $3.43 million AAV while Samberg’s AAV was $1.4 million — and both have proved themselves to be the Jets biggest up-and-coming stars.

As RFAs, neither have the freedom to sign wherever they want, so they’ll be with the Jets next season barring a holdout or offer sheet situation. The question is if they will sign long-term contracts in the six-to-eight-year range or take shorter deals so they can become first-time UFAs earlier in their careers. Samberg’s first opportunity to be a UFA is in 2027 and Vilardi’s first is in 2028.

Medium-to-long-term deals for both could cost a combined $12 million annually or more, half of Cheveldayoff’s available $24.46 million.

3: How Much To Budget For Toews’ True Cost?

Jonathan Toews’ base salary on the one-year deal announced last week is $2 million, but he could end up costing more than three times that.

The 37 year old, attempting an NHL comeback after a two-season hiatus due to illness, has a lucrative bonus structure built into his contract based on games played. He will receive an extra $550,000 after 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 regular-season appearances.

It’s safe to say Cheveldayoff didn’t sign a three-time Stanley Cup champion to not play him, so he’ll be in the lineup if healthy and will rake in quite a bit of money if he stays so for most of the season. For example, if he plays 50 games and the Jets make the playoffs — which they probably will barring some massive regression after winning the Presidents’ Trophy — Toews will make $4.7 million. If the Jets win the Stanley Cup and Toews meets all of his playoff games-played benchmarks, he’ll make $6.45 million.

At the end of the season, any bonuses a player earns are added to a team’s final cap hit. If Toews’ bonuses bring the Jets over the $95.5 million cap, the balance will count against the Jets’ cap in 2026-27.

Considering the Jets intend to compete again next season, Cheveldayoff would be wise to assume Toews’ real cost will be $5.25 million. While Cheveldayoff doesn’t have to worry about going over the cap, doing so just kicks the Toews compensation situation can down the road, and the longtime GM won’t want too much dead money on his books for 2026-27 considering Kyle Connor and Adam Lowry will be due new deals.

Busy Week in the Hockey World Ahead

Prior to free agency, the 2025 NHL Entry Draft will take place on June 27 and 28 in Los Angeles. Cheveldayoff has five picks, including the 28th-overall selection. Be sure to keep following The Hockey Writers for extensive draft and free-agent coverage.