Keys to victory for the Edmonton Oilers in their series against the Dallas Stars

There’s a reason for that increased deployment of Rantanen. The Stars’ expected goals percentage without Rantanen on the ice has only been above 50 percent four times, and in just two of those was it greater than Rantanen’s on-ice xG% (in the third instance of off-ice xG% being greater than on-ice, neither were positive and the Winnipeg Jets won Game two convincingly).

And in terms of on-ice goal share, only once since midway through their series against the Avalanche have the Stars won a game where Mikko didn’t win the goal share (that was the deciding Game 6 versus Winnipeg, which required Overtime).

Solve the Oettinger puzzle

Jake Oettinger is a very good goalie. This has been known fact since at least 2022, when he was about the only reason the Stars took the Calgary Flames to Overtime of Game 7. All he’s done since that time is help guide Dallas to what is now their third consecutive Conference Final appearance. Unlike the Florida Panthers, who have done the same out East, his team does not yet have a series win to show for those appearances.

It’s understandable, then, that Oettinger has appeared hungrier than ever in the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Through 13 playoff games, Oettinger has pitched a .919 save percentage to help get the Stars past the Avs and Jets, who had solid (or at least, good on home ice) goalies of their own, in Mackenzie Blackwood and Connor Hellebuyck. Some of his saves, like this one from the deciding Game six against Winnipeg, are perfect examples of the brilliance of “Otter”:

The Oilers will have to ensure there’s always net-front presences ready to take away Oettinger’s line of sight, and jam away at loose pucks like recent hero Kasperi Kapanen did to win the series against the Vegas Golden Knights. Simply throwing pucks to the net will not be good enough to beat the Dallas netminder. The goalie at the Edmonton end (which will be Stuart Skinner for at least the beginning of the series) will also need to bring forth their best work; Skinner has already done this before, and will need to do it again.

Keep imposing physical will on your opponent

A lot has been made of the Oilers’ balanced scoring attack, and vastly improved defence and goaltending. But another significant, if underrated, reason for the Oilers winning eight of their last nine playoff games has been their willingness to hit. And not just blindly hitting anything that moves, but doing so to force turnovers and prevent odd-man rushes.

Everybody on the Oilers playoff roster has gotten their physical game going, and perhaps nobody has embraced it more, or better, than Zach Hyman has. Hyman has registered 78 hits so far these playoffs, well ahead of second-place Sam Bennett and leading any Stars player by a country mile. Lian Bichsel and Jamie Benn are the only Dallas skaters to have reached 50 hits so far (chart via StatMuse):

This brand of hockey has clearly been working for the Oilers, as they have worn down two defences already by the later games of series. Edmonton will need to continue being physical, and take advantage of a Stars team that has already played 13 games against gruelling Central Division opponents. Even if it doesn’t have an instant impact in Game 1, it’ll help the Oilers gain the upper hand later on in the series.