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The Tampa Bay Lightning have some strong opponents they could be up against in the Stanley Cup Playoffs (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

Lightning’s Potential 1st-Round Playoff Matchups

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Harrison Smajovits | Last updated Apr 12, 2026 10:05 AM ET

The Tampa Bay Lightning are down to their final couple of games on the regular-season calendar. Despite the few games left to play, the playoff bracket is far from set. There are still a few different ways this could go, and who could be the first opponent of the playoffs is still to be determined.

We’re going to take a look at the four most likely opponents that the Lightning could face in the first round. As part of this deep dive, we’ll look at the overall season series and key players.

Montreal Canadiens

This is the matchup that would occur if the playoffs started at the time of this article’s publication. Naturally, we’ll start here. Following the 2-1 loss on Thursday night, the two switched spots in the standings, with the Montreal Canadiens jumping to second place in the Atlantic Division with 104 points and the Lightning in third place with 102 points. Since then, the Lightning have tied them back up in the standings, both at 104 points.

There’s a chance this flips-flops until the team with home ice has been determined. The last time these two faced off was in the unique COVID-specific playoff format that allowed them to go head-to-head in the Stanley Cup Final. The Lightning won in five games.

Even if this isn’t a first-round matchup, these two could still be poised for a playoff bout. The two teams have played each other in the second round/conference semifinals before (2004 and 2015), and it could happen again.

The veteran Lightning team would be up against a young, up-and-coming Habs team that features a 50-goal scorer in Cole Caufield, a likely 100-point scorer in Nick Suzuki and a reigning Calder trophy winner in Lane Hutson. Andrei Vasilevskiy would be set, in this scenario, to go head-to-head with Jakub Dobes, who is as dialed in between the pipes as a goalie can get down the stretch.

Buffalo Sabres

Even before the Buffalo Sabres went on a 15-season-long playoff drought, a matchup with the Lightning had never been in the cards. Based on how things are developing, like Montreal, this is a matchup that the Lightning are likely destined to have in the early stages of the playoffs.

This has been one of the more frustrating opponents for the Lightning. They finished 1-3-0 against the Sabres this season. It’s a matchup that featured an overtime win, but also a 6-2 kick in the teeth on home ice and a loss in an 8-7 offensive onslaught.

To the team’s chagrin, this is one of their more likely opponents. The Canadiens or the Sabres are the two most likely first-round matchups. They’re going to have to show that having been there before matters if this is how the bracket lines up.

Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin have led the way in scoring, with both having reached the 70-point plateau. This season, they have two goalies with a save percentage over .900, which they had zero of last season.

Boston Bruins

A playoff matchup that felt routine for the Lightning at one point has a chance to make its return. The standout game, naturally, was the Lightning’s comeback win in the Stadium Series that went all the way to the shootout and had a goalie fight along the way.

The Lightning rallied late to take down the Boston Bruins, 2-1, on Saturday to sweep the season series. They picked up three regulation wins and one in the shootout. In theory, this is the ideal matchup for the team. However, for this to be a first-round matchup, it would require the Lightning to win the division.

The Bruins are a lock to be a wild-card team in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but which wild card is still TBD. Jeremy Swayman continues to bounce back this season. David Pastrnak is on the brink of another 100-point season, and Morgan Geekie has an outside chance to reach 40 goals for the first time in his career.

Ottawa Senators

The Ottawa Senators took two of three to win the season series with the Lightning. This matchup, in theory, is still one of the better matchups, but the Lightning haven’t had it easy against this team the past couple of seasons. It’s especially been a tough go-around when they play in Ottawa.

Their last win in Ottawa was back on Nov. 4, 2023. It’s been some time. The playoffs are always a different environment than the regular season. However, it’s not the biggest confidence booster when looking ahead.

It would take the Lightning winning the division for this to be a possible matchup. If the playoffs started at the time of this article’s publication, the Seantors would play the division winner of the Atlantic.

The Senators’ goaltending is in a peculiar place, with Linus Ullmark posting just a .891 save percentage. Tim Stützle is the lead scorer (83) on the team by 14 points.

The Lightning are currently matched up to play the Canadiens in the first round, but these other three teams are still on the table.