Making Sense Of The Penguins’ Forward Logjam

There is perhaps no team more lopsided on paper right now than the Pittsburgh Penguins, who have one of the deepest forward groups in the NHL and perhaps the weakest defensive unit. Stated differently, the Penguins have too many forwards and too few quality defensemen. Much of their current conundrum stems from general manager Kyle Dubas trying to keep his team competitive while creating opportunities for the team’s next wave of young players. However, one look at the roster as currently constructed raises the question of whether Dubas believes any of his forward prospects are ready for NHL action, and whether he is confident that a pair of defensive prospects are. The Ville Koivunen extension throws a wrench in that notion, but even still, it’s no guarantee that Koivunen has a roster spot amongst the logjam.

On paper, Pittsburgh has somewhere between 16 and 18 legitimate forward candidates for 13 roster spots, assuming the team carries 13 forwards, eight defensemen, and two goaltenders. The players guaranteed to make the team right now are Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell, Bryan Rust, Evgeni Malkin, Tommy Novak, Egor Chinakhov, Andrei Kuzmenko, Blake Lizotte, and Nicholas Robertson. Then there is the next wave of Connor Dewar and Elmer Söderblom, who are very likely to grab two fourth-line roles. That leaves two spots open for Rutger McGroarty, Koivunen, Hendrix Lapierre, Justin Brazeau, Filip Hallander, Avery Hayes, and Tristan Broz to battle for. Tough competition, particularly for young prospects such as McGroarty, Hayes, and Broz, who were knocking on the door last year but may once again find themselves in the AHL for an extended stretch this season. This kind of depth will have Penguins management asking a lot of questions during training camp, such as who is expendable? Who would benefit from heavy AHL minutes? Who has earned a longer look in the NHL?

That is no doubt a talented forward group, but it is puzzling to look through those names and make sense of what the Penguins hope to accomplish this season. They don’t appear to be rebuilding, but they could be retooling, or are they hoping to make one final push in what could be the last season of Crosby, Malkin and Kris Letang in Pittsburgh? Those objectives don’t exactly align, but if the goal is to win this season with Crosby and company, it could have significant implications for the Penguins’ younger talent.

McGroarty will gain nothing by playing eight minutes a night in the NHL, but he also won’t benefit from another year of seasoning in the AHL. So, is he a top-nine player for the Penguins this season? Probably not with that group of forwards we just listed. That’s a big problem for one of the Penguins’ highest-touted forward prospects.

The same issue appears with Koivunen, who has done everything he can in the AHL to prove his worth and has almost exactly zero in the NHL. The 23-year-old was better than a point-a-game player in the AHL last season, but appeared overmatched physically in 39 NHL games, posting just two goals and five assists. The Penguins know that Koivunen has to put on a lot of muscle this summer, or he ends up going the route of Conor Sheary, a former Penguins player who was small and skilled but constantly fell from the lightest of nudges. That’s no disrespect to Sheary or Koivunen, but it is a reality that Penguins management is likely aware of and will have to face if Koivunen doesn’t cultivate mass this summer.

Then there is the curious case of Lapierre, a talented player who needs meaningful NHL minutes this season for the Penguins to see what they really have in him. Pittsburgh gave up two picks when they traded for him from the Washington Capitals, a move that seemed fine at the time but has become more curious after the Penguins added to their forward depth. Lapierre has shown flashes of being a top-nine NHLer, and the Penguins are hoping he is. But he could just as easily get lost in a numbers game unless the Penguins make more moves.

And therein lies a big question when you look at this team’s roster. How can they expect to enter next season with so many forwards and so few defensemen, particularly on the left side? Are the Penguins content to expose players to waivers and hope no one gets picked up? That seems unlikely. That would make trading a forward the smarter asset-management play, but who is the right player to trade, and can they use that forward to patch a defensive hole? Or could they use multiple forwards to fill the hole on their second line at center?

The answer is probably no, but there are certainly forwards on the roster they could trade. Brazeau had a nice start to last season but faded down the stretch. He could be a power-forward option for teams that are limited in cap space and assets. The same could be said for Hallander, who looked like an NHL forward before an injury ended his season. Those two seem like the likeliest to be moved, not because they are bad players, but because their age, contract status and abilities make them victims of the numbers game.

Now, there is a counterpoint to all of this: Dubas has emphasized over and over that internal competition is a good thing and leads to better team results. Sure, there is merit to that, as it creates better practices, more depth, more inspired performances, and accountability within the locker room. It also gives younger players room, even if there are growing pains, and allows the Penguins’ veterans to have support. Again, it’s a confusing setup in Pittsburgh because if that is the goal with the forwards, Dubas has done the complete opposite with his defensive unit. Maybe he feels Owen Pickering and Harrison Brunicke are ready for full-time NHL minutes, or maybe Dubas has another move in him. In any event, Pittsburgh is currently set to enter the 2026-27 season with an underwhelming defensive unit.

The Penguins entered this offseason with many questions about the future, but one question is clear heading into this season: whether the club can create enough opportunities for its next generation of players without sacrificing the final years of Crosby’s NHL career. It’s a delicate line to walk, but Dubas seems up to the task and seems content to try to make it all work.