Maple Leafs Await Draft Lottery Results

The Toronto Maple Leafs are ending their 2025-26 season the way they needed to. They are the 28th-place team in the NHL. Toronto now knows its chances in the draft lottery.

Since players returned from the Olympics, fans have been wondering about the Maple Leafs’ first-round pick. Toronto went 1-6-3 in its first ten games after the Olympics. That is when ‘Tank Nation’ started gaining momentum. Fans began wanting the Maple Leafs to tank to keep their first-round pick. Otherwise, Toronto must give the pick to the Boston Bruins.

Toronto did what they could by losing five of their last six games in regulation and dropping the other in overtime. All they can hope for now is that the NHL draft lottery works in their favor. They have an 8.5% chance to pick first overall, an 8.6% chance to pick second overall, and a 24.5% chance to pick fifth overall. However, there is a 44% chance of dropping to sixth overall and a 14.2% chance of picking seventh. If one of those two outcomes happens, the Bruins will acquire the pick.

Maple Leafs Season of Woe is Over

The Maple Leafs sent the 2026 first-rounder and forward prospect Fraser Minten to Boston in exchange for the defenseman Brandon Carlo. A trade that is one of the worst deals to be made by the recently fired general manager, Brad Treliving. It was smart of Treliving to put some protection on the pick, but he should have made it Top Ten protected, which is what most GM’s do.

Given how rough the season in Toronto has been, losing a first-round pick in a quality draft class would add insult to injury. The Maple Leafs’ losing all seven games in April (0-6-1) helps to give them the fifth-best lottery odds. However, nothing is guaranteed.

The odds are not perfect for the Maple Leafs. However, considering the fact that Toronto spent much of the second half with a higher than 80% chance of sending their pick to the Bruins, a nearly 50-50 chance has to feel at least a little bit better. We will find out where the pick is going on May 5th during the NHL draft lottery.

2026 NHL Draft Rankings

Here is a closer look at the projected top five prospects for the 2026 NHL draft. The draft is being held on June 26th (First Round) and 27th (Rounds 2-7). Scouting reports and rankings are from Sportsnet. Will the Maple Leafs have a chance of landing one of these five players?

No. 1: Gavin McKenna, LW, 6-foot, 170 pounds, Penn State (NCAA)

Is the offensive production we saw from him at the World Juniors and in the second half of the NCAA season enough to overshadow some of the doubt created by off-puck play, consistency of effort, and overall defensive awareness? If the NHL team picking first overall believes it can continue to develop McKenna’s defensive game, his overall elite offensive skill set will win out. 

No. 2: Ivar Stenberg, LW, 5-foot-11, 183 pounds, Frolunda (SHL)

Finished the season with 33 points, good enough for third all-time amongst SHL players in their draft-eligible season. Only Daniel (42) and Henrik (34) Sedin finished with more. More recently, Leo Carlsson and William Eklund had 25 and 23 points, respectively, in their draft years.

No. 3: Caleb Malhotra, C, 6-foot-1, 182 pounds, Brantford Bulldogs (OHL)

This is the time of year when Malhotra shines. He seems to be at his best when the games are most important and most difficult. On a veteran-laden Brantford team up 3-0 in their second round series, he continues to get prime-time minutes in every situation. With plenty of room to pack pounds onto his frame, an NHL pedigree, and a two-way game that’s equally as good on both sides of the puck, Malhotra looks like a center that an NHL team can build around.

No. 4: Chase Reid, D, 6-foot-2, 195 pounds, Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds (OHL)

Over the last season and a half, no one in hockey has experienced a more meteoric rise than Reid. Right-shot defensemen who can skate like the wind, make deft, accurate passes, can transport the puck, and also run a power play are highly valued. Having the self-belief and persistence to travel his non-traditional path are traits that will not be overlooked. 

No. 5: Keaton Verhoeff, D, 6-foot-3, 212 pounds, North Dakota (NCAA)

The overall body of work Verhoeff showed this season speaks to him being a surefire top-five pick in June. Scouts do have some concerns about his skating, and he makes some questionable decisions at times, but considering he played a key role for a Frozen Four NCAA team at 17 years old speaks volumes about his NHL potential.

I personally think the Maple Leafs should draft a defenseman if they keep their pick. So, for me, one of Chase Reid or Keaton Verhoeff should be their main focus if they’re in the top five after the NHL draft lottery.