Maple Leafs’ Clock Is Ticking on Matthews and Berube

Under Berube, Matthews’ drop has been real. Through 93 games, Matthews sits at 46 goals and 99 points. That works out to about 41 goals and 88 points over a full season. Those numbers are still excellent by most standards. But for Matthews, that’s not just a step back. They represent a different player.

The Difference Is Far More Complex than Mitch Marner’s Departure

And before anyone reaches for the easy explanation, this isn’t simply about Mitch Marner. Matthews has lined up beside Marner plenty under Berube. There’s no doubt that Matthews’ injuries have played a role. That said, he’s supposed to be healthy now. Still, as Saturday’s game against the Edmonton Oilers showed clearly, Matthews isn’t taking control of games the way he used to.

What’s harder to explain is how often Matthews fades from games. There have been long stretches where he doesn’t come close to tilting the ice. At times this season, he hasn’t even been the most dangerous player on his own line. Right now, that honour often belongs to Matthew Knies.

That’s the part that lingers. Matthews doesn’t just look less productive — he looks less imposing. He’s a half-step slower. He’s less assertive, and his scoring is no longer inevitable.

When Elite Players Like Matthews Fade, the Blame Splits in Two Directions

When this happens to elite players, the blame always splits in two directions. One finger points at the player; the other finger points at the coach. Are the systems sound? When and how has the player been used? Has the coach’s philosophy negatively impacted the player? Is the coach limiting the player, or is the player resisting the coach’s instructions?

Eventually, when there’s a dip in the elite player’s game and the team begins to lose (which is where the Maple Leafs are on Monday morning, Dec. 15), organizations are forced to choose. History has a pattern here: the coach gets shown the door, the star stays put. Big contracts, big reputations, and the marketing machine make sure of that.

Berube Was Brought to the Maple Leafs to Change Things

But here’s where it gets complicated. Berube wasn’t hired to babysit stars. He was brought in to change habits, to demand structure, to push back against comfort. If Matthews is struggling within that framework, it raises an uncomfortable question for the organization: Is the system wrong for the star, or is the star resisting what winning actually requires?

That’s not a question you answer in a week. Or even a season. But once it’s asked, it doesn’t go away. And if Matthews doesn’t start looking like Matthews again — soon — the Maple Leafs may find themselves staring down that familiar fork in the road. It’s one they’ve seen before. It’s also one that they never seem to enjoy heading down.

In the NHL, when performance slips and patience runs thin, it’s rarely the player who packs his bags. But every once in a while, the numbers force a harder conversation. Is this such a time?

[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]