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Matthew Knies of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrates with William Nylander #88 after scoring the game winning goal against the Boston Bruins to win the game 2-1 in overtime of Game Five of the First Round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Maple Leafs Could Face Offer Sheets for Matthew Knies

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Andrew Forbes | Last updated Mar 24, 2025 9:25 AM ET

In 2021, the Toronto Maple Leafs went out on a limb and took Arizona native, Matthew Knies, with their first pick of the draft which happened to be in the second round and 57th overall. At the time, he was a member of the Tri-City Storm in the USHL and had 17 goals and 42 points in 44 regular season games for the Storm in 2020-21.

There were some differing opinions at the time of the selection, but nobody really knew the ceiling that came with this young prospect at the time of the selection. Fast forward to 2024-25 after two seasons in the Big-10 with the University of Minnesota where he averaged over a point-per-game, and Knies is now in the NHL making a name for himself on the Maple Leafs’ top line with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.

But with restricted free agency pending for the 22-year-old and numbers swirling as to what his ask might be for his next contract, Nick Kypreos and Justin Bourne brought up the idea that the Maple Leafs might have to be on the lookout for an incoming offer sheet when the season ends and the window opens for other teams – something we saw this past offseason with Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg and the Edmonton Oilers.

While offer sheets have been rarely used in recent seasons, the successful play by the St. Louis Blues to acquire both Broberg and Holloway prior to the 2024-25 season has revitalized the conversation around them. But could Knies really be the target of an offer sheet?

Matthew Knies is Worth Offer Sheeting

He’s one of only three players this season with 25 goals and 150 hits. The other two are Washington Capitals’ Tom Wilson and Ottawa Senators’ Brady Tkachuk. It’s safe to say that Knies officially falls under the title of a power forward. In fact, he’s the first Maple Leafs player to have those combined numbers since hits started being tracked in 2007-08.

With that considered, why wouldn’t a team look to put the Maple Leafs in a bind and offer sheet Knies?

Through his first 149 games with the Maple Leafs, Knies has 40 goals and 81 points, averaging 0.54 points per game. This season he has 25 goals and 45 points in 66 games played, averaging 0.68 points per game and there’s been a major shift in his play under coach Craig Berube.

To add to that, Knies already ranks 32nd on the franchise’s all-time list in hits (albeit the stat has only existed since 2007-08) and he’s been a force to be reckoned with in front of the opposition’s net, both on the power play and at even-strength. All things considered, he makes for a perfect offer sheet candidate.

That said, in the clip above, Kypreos raises an extremely valid point. What price would the Maple Leafs not match for a player of Knies’ calibre? Better yet, the offer sheet would only exist if Knies is willing to sign one with another team. To this point he’s been quiet regarding negotiations with the Maple Leafs outside of saying that he likes being a member of the team and would like to remain in Toronto.

Knies’ Preference Could End Offer Sheet Talk

If his desire to remain in blue and white is as strong as it seems, the conversation around Knies and an offer sheet might be a moot point. After all, he would have to sign with another franchise to force the Maple Leafs to match it. Now, the increase in cap conversation aside, the Maple Leafs will have some room in the offseason with John Tavares and Marner approaching free agency as well.

Marner is likely to see a raise, if he stays in Toronto, while Tavares will see a drop off from his most recent contract with the Maple Leafs. That, alone, gives the Maple Leafs some room to move on Knies. The question begs, however, what will Knies command following a 25-goal season given we don’t know what the Maple Leafs or Knies will do come playoffs?

If his preference does play into his decision, the Maple Leafs could lock Knies up long-term for a reasonable price.

Knies’ Could See a Major Raise This Offseason

Given that he’s already being compared to Wilson and Tkachuk based on their goal-hits numbers this season, here’s what he’s being compared to on a salary basis. Keep in mind that both of these players have being around longer than the 22-year-old.

Following his entry-level contract (ELC), Tkachuk singed a seven-year deal with an annual average value (AAV) of just over $8.22 million through the 2028 season. At the time he signed it, he had 125 points in 198 regular season games – an average of 0.63 points per game.

Matthew Knies, Toronto Maple Leafs (Photo by Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images)

As for Wilson, he just signed a seven-year extension in 2023 that carries an AAV of $6.5 million. When he signed the deal, he had 295 points in 680 games – an average of 0.43 points per game. But for him, it was the power forward play and the role on the team that earned him the length and dollar amount of his latest contract.

With both of those in mind, and considering Knies’ age and development ceiling, is it out of the realm of possibility that Kypreos might be onto something with a $9-million AAV? It would be a huge jump from his ELC and one that could potentially look good for the Maple Leafs long-term, but would they be willing to bet on the future of what Knies could provide?

With what Tkachuk secured out of his ELC and given the similar production numbers through their first couple of seasons, it’s not out of the question that Knies could see an eight-year extension that carries and $8-million AAV. A deal like that wouldn’t push the envelope on the team’s top players when they’re set to re-sign and it would make sense for both player and team long-term. Even then, the Maple Leafs could reduce it to a six-year deal which might work better for both sides.

If the $8-million mark is the threshold, Kypreos’ statement that no team will be able to offer sheet him more than the Maple Leafs can match is spot on. Either way, it does seem like the Maple Leafs will find a way to get a deal done with or without an offer sheet. But is Knies a candidate to be offer sheeted this offseason? The truth is, there’s no telling what could happen if he makes it restricted free agency.