Maple Leafs’ Goaltending Duo Coming to Play Early On

A positive GSAx essentially means that the goalies are allowing fewer goals than expected and are performing better than this models predicts. In saying that, a recent graphic suggests the Maple Leafs’ duo is favourable in comparison to this statistic.

Of the NHL’s 32 teams, the Maple Leafs ranked second as of October 11 in this category with a plus-6.2 GSAx. Only the New York Rangers were better at plus-6.8 and that was with a healthy Igor Shesterkin.

At least early on, this is an encouraging start for the Maple Leafs who haven’t had the goaltending to ultimately steal them games in recent memory. In fact, their positioning near the top of the rankings suggests that both Bobrovsky and Stolarz have done more than simply get good defensive efforts in front of them – something that was evident in Bobrovsky’s outing against the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday.

Bobrovsky Proving His Worth Early On

While he was winless through his first three starts with the Maple Leafs, Bobrovsky’s underlying numbers suggest a much better acquisition than simple goals against average (GAA) and save percentage (SV%) might indicate. Even more so after his fourth start and first win with the Maple Leafs.

Through four games, he has a 1-2-1 record with a .907 SV% and 2.97 GAA. He’s given up 12 goals against and while it hasn’t been ideal on a personal level, he remains a top-10 goaltender in GSAx.

Once again, as of October 11, Bobrovsky sat seventh amongst goaltenders in GSAx at plus-4.7. Only six goalies were listed with a better goals saved above average, with one of them being Shesterkin. That means that Bobrovsky has stopped just over four more goals than the average NHL goaltender – an important number for successful goaltenders. It also means that, in some instances, he could steal some games for the Maple Leafs down the stretch – something the team hasn’t had a lot of over the last decade.

While Bobrovsky continues to get his footing under him in Toronto, his underlying numbers are promising for management and the fanbase alike.

Stolarz Could Be the Difference Maker

As for Stolarz, he has a 0.26 GSAx so far in two games this season. Like Bobrovsky, his other numbers are a little less telling of how he’s performed this season with a 2.44 GAA and .904 SV% in a season that has seen the overall save percentage in the NHL drop to .891 so far this season.

The last time Stolarz was partnered with Bobrovsky, in Florida in 2023-24, he also had a big season. He finished 16-7-2 in 27 games during the regular season with a 2.03 GAA and .925 SV%.

While it’s still early and there are a number of factors that could dictate how this season goes for both goalies, Stolarz could be an x-factor for the Maple Leafs with Bobrovsky getting the majority of the starts. Add to that their underlying numbers and the Maple Leafs’ duo has proven to be one of the team’s biggest strengths early in the 2026-27 season.