Maple Leafs’ Top 2 Lines Heading in Opposite Directions

The differences in production are hard to ignore. While one line is controlling the play and creating in dangerous areas of the ice, the other is being outshot, out-battled and out-performed.

Maple Leafs’ Top Line Driving the Play

So far this season, the Maple Leafs top line of Kirill Marchenko, Auston Matthews and Jack Roslovic have delivered at five-on-five, according to Mike Kelly. They’ve posted a plus-10 shot differential through three games which ranks fourth amongst 40 lines who’ve played a minimum of 20 minutes together.

What’s more impressive is that they have a plus-14 slot-shot differential, ranking first amongst those same qualifying lines, suggesting they have created opportunities in dangerous areas of the ice.

What might be the most eye-catching is their expected goals percentage at 84.3 percent. With that number, they rank first amongst qualifying lines as the best line in the NHL who’ve played at least 20 minutes at five-on-five together when it comes to controlling the expected quality of scoring chances.

One takeaway from this line that hasn’t favoured the team yet is goal differential. While they’ve clearly held the advantage in most areas of play, the Maple Leafs top line has yet to outscore their opposition – with a goal differential of zero. While they rank top-five in every other category – they sit 15th in goal differential. But this could just be the calm before the storm.

While it’s not guaranteed that these underlying numbers will translate into overall success, it would suggest that we will see a lot more from this line in terms of offensive production as the season continues to progress.

McKenna-Tavares-Nylander Still Searching for Answers

When the second line jumps over the boards, the story has been a little different for the Maple Leafs. They’ve struggled to get things going this season and have combined for a minus-10 shot differential at five-on-five. They rank 39th amongst the 40 lines that’ve played at least 20 minutes together this season, and last when it comes to slot-shot differential – a stat in which they come in at minus-eight.

As for expected goals percentage, it should come as a bigger worry for the team this season. At just 15.2 percent, they also rank last amongst the 40 line combinations – a stat showing that chances have been heavily stacked against them when they are on the ice. On paper, it should be a different story with the combination of McKenna-Tavares-Nylander on the ice.

Just three games in, they are just minus-three in goal differential so it hasn’t cost the team exponentially yet. However, they haven’t necessarily helped the Maple Leafs yet either. But they need to turn it around soon.

Maple Leafs Might Need to Make Adjustments

Now, their sample size has to be taken into consideration. It is just three games into a season where McKenna has high expectations placed on him and the Maple Leafs are expecting so much from their second line. Could it just take time for the chemistry to build with these three?

Putting the combination together is more about how they complement each other rather than simply goals and assists. For now, this line is struggling in that regard. The Maple Leafs and Jim Hiller don’t want to rush to making any changes or decisions regarding the lineup, but they can’t wait too long either.

On top of that, they can’t pull from the top line or the third line for that matter as both of those two lines have been clicking thus far. So what’s the answer for the second line?

The contrast between the two lines is striking. While the need to maintain their top-line dominance is important, they need to find a solution on how to get the second line going and generating opportunities in the offensive zone.

For now, it’s a tale of two lines for the Maple Leafs – one of optimism, the other raising questions on where the fix lies within the organization.