The Toronto Maple Leafs continued their up-and-downs start to 2025 with a 6-3 win over the Calgary Flames, three days after defeating the Edmonton Oilers 4-3 to sweep their trip through Alberta. These past two wins specifically have shown some promising signs for a team that’s struggled to generate offence at either 5v5 or on the power play, with ten goals scored between the two wins including four power play goals.
One of the ongoing mysteries about this Leafs team is that they seemingly play better when they’re without a star player. Back in November, they went 7-2-0 in nine games without Auston Matthews, and they looked more dangerous offensively against the Flames than they have all season despite being without Mitch Marner. Logically, it doesn’t make sense that the team plays better when they’re without a 60+ goal-capable centre and a 90+ point winger, both of whom are elite defensively.
The number one thing that comes to mind when assessing why the team has been so good without one of them is the idea that they’re simply overthinking everything. Regarding the power play, with so many weapons at their disposal, they’re too focused on finding the perfect play and outsmarting their opponents, when in reality, the game plan should be simple and involve getting pucks to the front of the net. As for their production at even strength, we’ve seen how dominant Matthews and Marner can be when they’re playing together, but we’ve also seen how easy they can be to shut down if their opponent is dialled defensively. If your entire game plan is to “shut down the Core Four” and you can effectively pull it off, you’re going to come out victorious against this group more often than not. It’s why they’re under fire for their playoff performances so often.
At the time of filing, Marner appears to be a game-time decision. Everyone wants him back and healthy, but if that’s the case, they should strongly consider following similar lines to Tuesday night’s affair in Calgary. That involves leaving Max Domi on Matthews’ wing.
Let’s address the elephant in the room off the hop. Max Domi has not been good this season. He was expected to be one of their top secondary contributors offensively, tallying 47 points last season despite only eight goals, but the production has taken a step back in 2024-25. Domi has only three goals on the season and 19 points in 45 games, which isn’t good enough when you have such a top-heavy team. Much of this is due to the fact that he hasn’t been able to find consistent linemates. He’s taken some reps on the wing, some up the middle, and he’s seen most of his success skating alongside Bobby McMann and Nick Robertson. McMann has had a solid season to date, but Robertson has been just as inconsistent as Domi, so when you pair that with limited usage at even strength and even less on the power play, it’s not exactly a recipe for success for a guy who’s best served on an offensive line versus a defensive shutdown line.
After Marner, you can make the argument that Domi is the second-best passer on the team. Do you know what complements a pass-first player? A goal-scorer. Do you know who scores lots of goals? Auston Matthews.
Domi skated alongside Matthews for the first time this season against Calgary, and while he didn’t register a point, it was one of if not his best game of the season. He was engaged, he was a threat off the rush, and he looked like a guy who was playing with confidence and playing to his strengths. When you have him in a role like third-line centre, he has to be thinking about both sides of the puck more than he would on Matthews’ wing, and having to take focus away from his strengths and shift it to an area where he’ll find himself more concerned about not making mistakes than playing his game is not going to do his offensive issues any favours.
KNIESY POKES IT HOME! pic.twitter.com/rVYLamNqte
— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) February 5, 2025
We’re also not working with a one-game sample size to support this argument. When Marner was out with a high ankle sprain last March, Domi found himself on Matthews’ wing and played some of his best hockey of the year, scoring one goal and adding nine assists for ten points in 12 games. That line had Tyler Bertuzzi in the power forward role on the left side, and with Matthew Knies’ strong season to date, he would make the line even better in that role.
But wait, isn’t that going to take away from Marner’s production? No, quite the opposite actually. In fact, he scored as much as he assisted while Matthews was down. He scored seven goals and tallied 15 points in nine games while skating alongside John Tavares, who had nine points in nine games during that time himself. In fact, he exuberated a level of confidence that fans have been clamouring to see in the playoffs for what feels like forever. Recognizing that the team was without their top goal-scorer, he started shooting the puck more and had seven goals in those 15 games. Marner was drafted fourth overall because of his ability to take over games in junior, and realistically, he should have that same ability in the NHL. But, when he’s playing with Matthews and facing extra pressure to produce, it seems like both parties overthink their plays and the solution is to keep trying the same thing over and over again, hoping it works eventually.
That leaves William Nylander as your utility knife. He can drive the third line with somebody like Bobby McMann, or he can play on his off-wing with Tavares and Marner to give them a loaded second line. Ideally, they add a third-line centre who can allow them to load up that second line, but with or without that acquisition, they’re better off spreading out the offence than they are going top-heavy. It seems silly to call the team’s current leader in goals a “utility knife”, but for the Leafs, it can be an advantage not many teams have. Nylander has proven that he can produce regardless of the situation, whether he’s on a top line complementing Matthews or Tavares or driving a line lower in the lineup.
The Leafs are going to need an upgrade offensively at the trade deadline, but for the time being, they can cut down on their scoring issue by making one swap. I’d be willing to bet that Max Domi heats up and takes some of the pressure off of himself if he’s skating on a line where he can focus on offence and nothing else, and when that line isn’t on the ice, now you have to deal with Marner and Tavares hopping over the boards. It also doesn’t mean that Matthews and Marner will never play together. They’ll still have the power play, 3-on-3 overtime, and situations that require an extra attacker such as pulling the goaltender. But if they want to reignite the high-octane offensive game that they’ve built their brand around, getting Domi going and spreading out the offence with one simple line change is a great place to start.
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