Maple Leafs without Mitch Marner: By the numbers

There are going to be a lot of questions about the Maple Leafs as training camp starts this week but the one big question that most of those other questions will link back to is “what will the Leafs look like without Mitch Marner?”. The answer to that question isn’t going to come in training camp, the preseason, or likely even the first 20 games. It’s going to take a lot of time to figure out what the Leafs will be. They are certainly down a superstar, but you can also say that their lineup card has the potential to be more balanced. On paper the Leafs look a lot tougher to play against. And while Marner was only one player his absence is a significant change in direction.

The Leafs don’t have a lot of history of playing without Marner to look back on. He’s been a pretty healthy player, but looking at the past five years, the Leafs have done surprisingly well when he hasn’t been in the lineup and their 15-8-3 record still puts the Maple Leafs with a .634 points percentage over those games, which is a drop off from Marner being in the lineup but still shows the Maple Leafs are a playoff team.

It’s also probably worth noting that when Marner was out of the lineup his spot was being filled by Marlies, not taking his $10.93M cap hit and applying it to an upgraded roster. Maybe that points to the Leafs baseline being a 104 point team based on that small sample size with some room to improve.

Here’s the breakdown of the Leafs without Marner season by season:

2024-25: 1-0-0

One game without Mitch Marner. A win against the Calgary Flames on February 4th. Nylander had a hat trick, Matthews 3 assists, Knies 2 point night, and McMann and Tavares also scored.

2023-24: 8-4-1

Game 51 vs. Blues (4-1 win, McMann hat trick)
Game 64 vs. Canadiens (3-2 win)
Game 65 vs. Flyers (6-4 win)
Game 66 vs. Hurricanes (5-4 shootout loss)
Game 67 vs. Flyers (4-3 loss)
Game 68 vs. Capitals (7-3 win, Matthews 5 point night, Domi 4 assist night)
Game 69 vs. Oilers (6-3 win)
Game 70 vs. Hurricanes (2-1 loss)
Game 71 vs. Devils (6-3 loss)
Game 72 vs. Capitals (5-1 win)
Game 73 vs. Sabres (3-0 win)
Game 74 vs. Panthers (6-4 win)
Game 75 vs. Lightning (4-1 loss)

2022-23: 1-1-0

Game 76 vs. Red Wings (5-2 loss)
Game 81 vs. Lightning (4-3 win)

2021-22: 5-3-2

Game 25 vs. Wild (4-3 shootout loss)
Game 26 vs. Jets (6-3 loss)
Game 27 vs. Blue Jackets (5-4 win, Rielly 4 assists)
Game 28 vs. Lightning (5-3 loss)
Game 29 vs. Blackhawks (5-4 win)
Game 30 vs. Oilers (5-1 win)
Game 33 vs. Avalanche (5-4 overtime loss)
Game 34 vs. Golden Knights (4-3 shootout win)
Game 35 vs. Coyotes (2-1 loss)
Game 82 vs. Bruins (5-2 win)

2020-21: No games missed

There certainly isn’t much that can be gleaned from a one game absence at the end of last season nor any of this really, but the 7-4-1 extended stretch of Marner being out during 2023-24 is likely the best and most encouraging stretch to consider.

Here’s how the current Leafs produced over that 12 game stretch that saw Toronto jump to four goals for per game (48 total) and 3.08 goals against per game (37 total):

The overall numbers are interesting and maybe reflect the Keefe era of offence being king but understandably with a strong two-way player like Marner being absent the Leafs attempted to score their way out of trouble. There was a spike in both goals for and goals against, but it is unlikely that Craig Berube is committing to a season of this approach after last season already being a giant pendulum swing back towards conservative hockey at 5v5.

Knies’ numbers come with the reminder that he wasn’t playing with Auston Matthews during that stretch, Matthews was on a line with Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi. Knies’ 0.5 point-per-game pace was solid for a rookie.

Matthews’ nine goals certainly don’t look bothersome during Marner’s absence but considering that he was on a pace for over 70 goals that season and with Marner’s absence he dropped to a 61 goal pace does show that Marner’s playmaking over the likes of Domi or others will impact Auston.

Marner’s departure without a big name replacement doesn’t break the Leafs and even if there wasn’t any attempt to replace him, it seems like the Maple Leafs would be fine, but saying that his impact won’t be felt and at times hinder the Leafs over the next 82 games isn’t true either.

Things will be different but when the same core under three different coaches over the last eight seasons hasn’t achieved the expected results, change at the top of the roster makes a lot of sense and brings more excitement than fear.

Data from Hockey Reference