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The Minnesota Wild have signed 22-year-old goalie Samuel Hlavaj to a two-year, entry-level contract that starts in the 2024-25 season. Hlavaj has played in North America previously, both in the USHL and the QMJHL. Most recently, Hlavaj played in the Czech Extraliga. During 28 games, he had a 3.10 goals against average and a .902 save percentage. He was signed as a European free agent.
Hlavaj played in three games with Slovakia at the 2023 IIHF World Championship. During those games, he had a 2.22 goals against average and a .932 save percentage. Hlavaj played for the Sherbrooke Phoenix from 2019-21. During the 2019-20 season, Hlavaj led the QMJHL in goals against average with 2.25 and was named to the QMJHL All-Rookie Team. He was also named the Defensive Rookie of the Year for the QMJHL.
Hlavaj also played in the Under-20 IIHF World Junior Championships for Slovakia in 2019, 2020, and 2021. He also played in two Under-18 IIHF World Junior Championships in 2018 and 2019.
Before this signing, the Wild organization only had Jepser Wallstedt and Filip Gustavsson under contract. This signing won’t affect NHL goalie decisions for the Minnesota Wild but gives them the option of pulling him up if needed. With his young age, Hlavaj has plenty of time for more development. This signing means he will be playing in the AHL with the Iowa Wild and the other goalie prospects in the system are moving on.
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Five NHL players who may benefit from positive regression in 2025-26
Whether you like it or not, math and luck play a role in hockey. Sometimes players are scoring or stopping the puck at a higher rate than they usually do, and sometimes they’re doing it at a lower rate. Regardless, the bill always comes due, and those percentages swing the other way, unless the player is just that good. Every year, we see some players have down years compared to the rest of their career, and they usually bounce back the following season. So I thought it’d be a good idea to take a look at some players who underperformed their percentages in 2024-25 and will possibly see those results go the other way next year. This list will just be looking at regular-season performances, as the playoffs being such a small sample size for even the teams going on deep runs means that there are too many anomalies to choose from. It’s not a guarantee that every player on this list will get better, especially when percentages don’t play nearly as much of an impact on regression as it used to. But it’s still important to look at and be aware of them, especially if you’re a fan wanting to manage expectations, or a fantasy hockey player looking for potential steals in this season’s draft. Before we begin, here are a few honorable mentions: Thatcher Demko, Vancouver Canucks: 2024-25 was a season to forget for Demko. It took him a significant amount of time to recover from the injury that he sustained in the 2024 playoffs, and then on top of dealing with more injuries for the rest of the season, he saw his on-ice performance drop. After finishing as a Vezina finalist in 2023-24, he sported an .889 save percentage, a .021 drop from his career average. However, a lot of that was just regression from his 2023-24 season, and despite all of that, he still managed a 6.78 5v5 goals saved above expected, so the talent is still there. While he may not be a Vezina candidate this season, expect him to return to the level of a high-end NHL starter for the Vancouver Canucks. Anthony Duclair, New York Islanders: It wasn’t a great start to Duclair’s tenure with the New York Islanders last season. After signing the longest contract of his career, Duclair played just five games before a torn groin kept him out of the lineup for two months, and he was never quite able to recover his game for the rest of the season. He managed to get into just 44 games, and had just seven goals and an alarming low total of just four assists. However, with an on-ice shooting percentage of 6.87%, a lot of those low totals came from some extremely bad luck. He should see a shift in that this season, especially as the Islanders look to finally move on from their mediocre core under new management. William Karlsson, Vegas Golden Knights: I had identified Karlsson as a regression candidate last summer after scoring 30 goals and shooting 17.1% to get there, so it should be no surprise that he saw that performance swing the other way in 2024-25. While injuries held him to just 53 games, he still finished the season with only nine goals and 29 points, shooting 7.6%. Considering that his career SH% is 12.6%, his performance between the two seasons is about as clear cut of a regression as it gets, swinging 5% off the mark both ways. Expect that to finally normalize this season and get him back to the 15-20 goal scorer that he usually is. Considering that there were some trade rumors surrounding him this summer, it’s for the best that the Vegas Golden Knights opted to not trade him when his value was at its’ lowest. Joel Farabee, Calgary Flames 2024-25 Stats: 11 goals, 14 assists, 25 points What’s the outlier?: SH% was 4.3% lower and on-ice SH% was 2.05% lower than career average Farabee had easily the worst season of his career in 2024-25. His time with the Philadelphia Flyers wasn’t great, with just eight goals and 11 assists in 50 games, and after he was dealt to the Calgary Flames at the end of January, his production fell off even more, with just three goals and six points in 30 games after the trade. For a player that’s regularly in the 20-goal, 35-point range, it was quite the drop off. But most of that can be attributed to some bad luck on the ice, both in terms of his own shooting ability and his teammates’. With a 7.28% SH%, he shot 4.32% lower than his career rate of 11.6%, meaning that he would have had 17 or 18 goals if he shot at his career rate. And his teammates had similarly bad luck, with Farabee’s on-ice SH% of 7.44% being 2.05% lower than his career rate of 9.49%. Morgan Frost was the focal point of the trade to Calgary anyways, but if Farabee’s luck can return to normal, expect him to be a solid buy-low inclusion in that trade for the Flames. Alexandar Georgiev, Free Agent 2024-25 Stats: 15-26-4 record, .875 Sv%, -11.72 GSAx What’s the outlier?: Sv% was .028 lower than career average Georgiev has always been a bit overvalued in the market, as he’s made a career out of playing behind some strong New York Rangers and Colorado Avalanche teams, despite his numbers that were mediocre to, at best, fine. That said, he was generally good enough to not cost his team a win. But last season was a different story, as the Avalanche were barely hanging on to a playoff spot because of Georgiev’s performance, and as a result, they quickly pivoted to trading Georgiev to the San Jose Sharks to upgrade in net with Mackenzie Blackwood. Georgiev continued to struggle in San Jose, and they opted not to re-sign him, and he still doesn’t have a contract. It’s quite possible that Georgiev has played himself out of an NHL career, but it might not entirely be deserved. At the very least, some bad luck may have been in play. While Georgiev has never played at an elite level, a career .903 Sv% is still adequate, particularly in a tandem or backup role. An .875 Sv% is a massive drop off, and nowhere close to the level where he’s normally performed at in his career. At 29, it is possible that maybe he’s already surpassed his peak and is just experiencing a natural decline, but I don’t think he’d be a horrible gamble for a team still looking for goaltending depth, especially one that has the defensive structure to insulate him and make him comfortable again. Matias Maccelli, Toronto Maple Leafs 2024-25 Stats: 8 goals, 10 assists, 18 points What’s the outlier?: SH% was 2.4% lower and on-ice SH% was 3.7% lower than career average Maccelli broke out in the NHL in 2022-23 with the Arizona Coyotes, and after his first two full seasons in the league, he had established himself as a solid playmaking winger with 38 and 40 assists, while also having some finishing ability with 11 and 17 goals. However, as Utah started to break out in their debut 2024-25 season, Maccelli went the other way with just eight goals and 18 points in 55 games. As a result, the now-Utah Mammoth sold low on him and dealt him to the Toronto Maple Leafs this summer. That trade could prove to be an excellent buy-low move for the Leafs, as a lot of Maccelli’s dip in performance came from some bad luck. His shooting percentage of 9.3% was 2.4% lower than his career rate of 11.7%, but more importantly to Maccelli’s skillset, his on-ice shooting percentage of 6.62% was 3.7% lower than his career rate of 10.32%, which explains why he lost about 30 assists last season, along with also only playing 55 games. While that regression alone will be a big change in Maccelli’s performance this season, the fact that he’s joining a Leafs team that just lost one of the best playmaking wingers in the league in Mitch Marner and are looking for a replacement on the top line with one of the best shooters in the game in Auston Matthews could bode very well for Maccelli’s career. Carter Verhaeghe, Florida Panthers 2024-25 Stats: 20 goals, 33 assists, 53 points What’s the outlier?: SH% was 5.1% lower than career average While Verhaeghe certainly won’t complain about how his season went in the grand scheme of things, what with the Florida Panthers winning the Stanley Cup and all, how his season went individually was less than ideal. His assist total held the same with 33, but his goal total dropped significantly, going from 42 and 34 the prior two seasons to just 20 in 2024-25, which also saw him slip from a 70-point player to only 53 points. There were even rumours that the Panthers were potentially going to move on from him to free up cap space as his eight-year deal with a $7 million cap hit kicked in this summer. However, trading Verhaeghe would have been a massive mistake if they followed through with it. A quick look at the numbers shows that his drop in goal-scoring was mostly due to his shooting percentage of 8.3%, which was 5.1% lower than his career rate of 13.4%. Should that swing the other way in a positive regression, he may be due for 40+ goals, and even if it just stabilizes, he’d be good for 30. He actually already saw his play bounce back during their playoff run, where he had seven goals and 23 points in 23 games while shooting 13.5%, almost right back at his career rate. That actually set a new career-high for him in playoff production in one run, and he added to his reputation as a clutch scorer with three more game-winning goals. Jeremy Swayman, Boston Bruins 2024-25 Stats: 22-29-7 record, .892 Sv%, -6.43 5v5 GSAx What’s the outlier?: Sv% was .018 lower than career average It wasn’t exactly a normal season for Jeremy Swayman, as he missed the entirety of training camp due to not signing a contract with the Boston Bruins yet. He finally signed an eight-year deal with an $8.25 million cap hit, and after missing the first game of the season, he should have been set for his first season as a full-time starter. However, like the Bruins in front of him, he struggled significantly and never really found his footing in the crease. Now, it’d be irresponsible to assume that Swayman’s performance was solely due to a .018 drop from his career save percentage of .910. After all, he didn’t get a proper preseason to get warmed up, and as we’ve seen with previous contract holdouts, the player sometimes never catches up in those situations. On top of that, the Bruins were quite bad in 2024-25, and Swayman also had to get used to a larger workload. But luck could have very easily played a role in his drop off last season, especially when you realize that he never finished lower than a .914 Sv% prior to last season, which also means his career rate was actually .917 entering last season. It was a massive outlier, and I would imagine that Swayman will return to form this season, unless it turns out that he just can’t handle 50+ games a season.
Patriots have big Drake Maye concern surface at Vikings' joint practice
Defense ruled the day during the joint practice between the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings. Per Chad Graff of The Athletic, the Patriots defense did a masterful job of disrupting Vikings second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy at Wednesday's practice. However, New England's offensive line was unable to allow Drake Maye to have enough time to finish plays. "Even with four new expected starters up front following last year’s debacle, Wednesday suggested that there will likely be some bumps ahead for this offensive line," Graff wrote. "Sure, going up against the Vikings was always going to be a difficult task. Greenard has been wrecking his own team’s practices in training camp, and everyone in New England knows how good Flores’ scheme can be. But the domination was so thorough by the Vikings’ front seven that three straight plays at one point would’ve resulted in a sack." Maye showed flashes of promise when he had time to throw downfield or was able to use his legs to buy time or scramble when pressure came. The concern is that the offensive line won't allow Maye enough time to even scramble, so he can make throws. Graff has noticed the same issues that happened on Wednesday have been a constant at training camp against the Patriots defense. With a new-look offensive line that includes first-round pick Will Campbell at left tackle, the Patriots are expected to have some bumps at training camp and in September. New England's offense probably won't look great out of the gate while the offensive line develops in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels' scheme. If and when the offensive line improves, Maye will have a chance to show off the arm that made him the No. 3 pick in 2024. For now, the offensive line is a concern much like it was last season.
Browns HC confirms Dillon Gabriel, Shedeur Sanders whispers
A previous report suggested that the Cleveland Browns want to start 2025 third-round draft pick Dillon Gabriel at quarterback for this coming Saturday's preseason game at the Philadelphia Eagles over 2025 fifth-rounder Shedeur Sanders as long as Gabriel is healthy enough to play at Philadelphia's Lincoln Financial Field. While speaking with reporters ahead of Wednesday's joint practice involving the clubs, Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski confirmed that Gabriel began the day on track to start Saturday's contest. "The plan was always to give both of those guys a start in the preseason, so we’ll see how it shakes out," Stefanski explained, as shared by Josh Alper of Pro Football Talk. Neither Gabriel nor backup Kenny Pickett played in Cleveland's preseason opener at the Carolina Panthers on Friday as they continued to recover from lingering hamstring injuries. Sanders received the bulk of the meaningful reps in that game and completed 14-of-23 passes for 138 yards and two touchdowns in a 30-10 win over Carolina. While Gabriel is doing 11-on-11 work during joint practices this week, Pickett remained relegated to 7-on-7 drills as of Wednesday. That said, FanDuel Sportsbook continued to list 40-year-old Joe Flacco as the betting favorite at -310 odds to be the Browns' starting quarterback for their Week 1 game against the Cincinnati Bengals as of Wednesday. Pickett was at +360 odds, followed by Sanders at +1060. Gabriel was a +1800 underdog to get the nod for the Cincinnati matchup at that time. Gabriel began Wednesday as the Browns' unofficial QB3 ahead of Sanders. Meanwhile, Sanders did not get any reps in the opening few periods of the Browns' joint practice with the Eagles on Wednesday morning after suffering an oblique injury. Earlier in the month, the former Colorado star missed some practice time due to arm soreness. Per Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Stefanski added that he wants "to get through" Thursday before he finalizes his plans for the Philadelphia game. Unless Gabriel experiences a setback ahead of the weekend, it seems he will receive an opportunity to silence critics while serving as Cleveland's temporary QB1 against the Eagles.
Giants force Jets' Justin Fields into familiar problem at joint practice
New York Jets quarterback Justin Fields was a little more accurate on Wednesday than he was in his "alarming" performance during joint practice with the New York Giants on Tuesday. Still, the fifth-year quarterback had a familiar issue pop up. Per Dan Duggan and Charlotte Carroll of The Athletic, Fields took several sacks against a Giants defense that brought the house on a shaky Jets offensive line. Via The Athletic: "On the other field, the Giants defensive front carried over its domination from Tuesday, giving Jets quarterback Justin Fields and his offensive line plenty of problems. Camp stats are subjective, especially when it comes to sacks, but the Giants appeared to get to Fields for four sacks. "Similar to Tuesday, there were moments when it was hard to tell exactly who was causing problems as the Giants sent multiple bodies in the backfield. Fields, who went 7-of-11 on the day, had a few overthrows on plays that likely were sacks." Fields did have a couple of long runs on a Giants defense that struggled against the rush in 2024. While Fields has a unique ability to add to the running game, the Jets need the 2021 first-round pick to push the ball down the field in the passing game. Fields has always had a problem with being indecisive in the pocket, leading to his taking too many sacks since entering the league. He led the league with 55 sacks in 2022 and has taken 151 in his four-year career. The Ohio State product took 16 sacks during his six starts with the Pittsburgh Steelers last season. In camp, Fields doesn't have to worry about taking body blows from sacks that lead to injuries. That will happen in the regular season if he plays how he practiced on Wednesday.
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