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Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

Mitch Marner’s Free Agency Decision Could Lead to a Quiet Start to NHL Offseason

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers | By Mark Scheig | Last updated Jun 20, 2025 12:15 PM ET

The talk of the NHL offseason so far has been just how wild and crazy things could get. From potential big trades to massive contract signings, it’s fair to say most people believe there will be chaos between now and the start of free agency.

While we might eventually get chaos, we may want to tap the brakes on that for a little bit. There’s a big story in the hockey world that while it’s getting plenty of attention, it’s implications might not be getting the attention it deserves. It has the potential to put some cold water on at least the start of the fireworks this offseason.

Marner & July 1

Mitch Marner appears to be heading directly for July 1 and a chance to hit the open market. While it remains to be seen exactly what his process of determining a team will look like, there’s already been some speculation about that.

On a recent episode of 32 Thoughts the Podcast, the guys discussed the possibility that Marner could choose to make visits to interested teams. They also mentioned the possibility of a decision coming sometime after July 1.

This is not an insignificant fact. If Marner does elect to take his time before making a decision, that is going to directly impact what teams can do at the start of the offseason.

Interested teams are going to have to ensure they have enough cap space to fit Marner’s contract in. Therefore, they may have to wait in certain cases to make other business decisions.

If Marner wants to be paid say $13-$14 million per season, interested teams will not only have to account for that, they may even need to make contingency plans based on what direction Marner ultimately decides to go.

Marner’s decision is big enough that it could put a halt on what teams want to do. He is the kind of player that has the power to do so given what he would bring to them if signed.

Potential Domino Effect

Teams are going to have to talk through these different scenarios to see what is in their best interest. Let’s try to paint a picture of this situation.

Imagine you are a team that has the cap space to sign Marner. Now imagine you could also sign the likes of Nikolaj Ehlers or Brock Boeser.

Now imagine either Ehlers or Boeser indicate they want to sign with your team. But you still want Marner. Would teams in this case take the sure thing or wait in the hopes they get their ultimate wish?

Nikolaj Ehlers scored his fifth career hat trick Friday night in Columbus. (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

Teams may also consider telling Marner’s camp they want an answer by a certain deadline. If Marner isn’t ready to commit to a team, that would put the team in an unstable place. They could miss out on everybody if they choose to wait and then he doesn’t sign with them.

Teams will have to weigh the benefits and potential cost of trying to pursue Marner. If they believe they have a chance to land him, they will be forced to wait things out. That would lead to a quiet start of their offseason until there is clarity.

Market Will Work Itself Out

There has been a lot of speculation about which teams Marner would consider signing with. The thing to watch for here is which teams that have the cap space to sign him don’t do anything big at the start of free agency. That could be a potential sign of their interest in him.

A team like the Carolina Hurricanes comes to mind. They have enjoyed success up until the Conference Finals of late. They are in a quieter market than Toronto. And most importantly, they have the cap space to sign him with over $28.4 million in room according to PuckPedia.

Watch what the Hurricanes do throughout this process. If they maintain their ample cap space, that could be a tell. The same can be said about the Anaheim Ducks with over $32 million in available space. Even the Utah Mammoth at over $20 million in space fit this description if they want to go for something big.

Watch also for teams who make moves to clear cap space. An example of this would be the Vegas Golden Knights. They’re just under $10 million in cap space as of this writing. If they suddenly ship some players out while gaining valuable cap space, that’s a pretty good sign they’re eyeing something.

In the end, the market will work itself out. Marner could already have a list of teams in mind he’d consider signing with. What will be interesting to watch is how quickly teams will know if they are in or out on potentially signing him.

Impacts to Everyone Else

Even if a team isn’t in on Marner, it will still be wise for them to pay attention to what’s going on. Marner’s decision could ultimately lead to new and unforeseen opportunities.

If a player of interest suddenly becomes available thanks to the addition of Marner, teams should be ready to pounce on those opportunities.

Again, the Golden Knights come to mind. If Marner’s intention is to sign with Vegas, then the team will do what’s necessary to make room. What would be their loss would become someone else’s gain.

Teams may ultimately need to wait until the Marner decision rectifies itself to have a clearer picture of what all they can do. To a lesser degree, the same could be said about a player like Sam Bennett. Although, it seems he wants to re-sign with the Florida Panthers. Until pen hits paper though, anything can happen. Many teams would lineup to sign him. Until they know it’s not possible, they may need to wait to do other things.

We should still expect a crazy offseason when the dust settles. Just don’t be surprised if the start of the offseason is perhaps a little slower than you thought. Until there is clarity on Marner’s situation, we may see teams take a patient approach before doing anything significant. It may be what’s best for business for some teams.