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Montreal’s Odds Are Worse Than Ottawa’s With a Better Team

Originally posted on NHL Trade Talk | By Old Prof | Last updated Apr 4, 2026 2:48 PM ET

Montreal’s fans have every right to be baffled. The Montreal Canadiens have ripped off seven straight wins, boast a dazzling goal differential, and sit with a 99.93% chance of making the playoffs. Yet, in some corners of the odds board, Ottawa is listed at 25-1 odds to win the Cup while the Canadiens are listed at 30-1 odds.

Absurd? On the surface, yes. Look a little closer, and you see the league’s favourite bit of statistical sleight-of-hand: path theory.

Path Theory Sees the Senators Having an Easier Path to the Cup

Path theory (or sometimes called playoff bracket analysis) is delightfully unromantic. It doesn’t argue who’s the better bunch of skaters; it maps who ends up standing across from whom when the puck drops in Round 1. Ottawa, if they slither into a Wild Card spot, probably dodges the heavier artillery in the early rounds.

Montreal, by contrast, would be shoved into a bracket where they meet brimstone and brawny top seeds sooner rather than later. So despite Montreal’s overall superiority, their route to the conference final has a shakier footing on paper.

Reddit Shows Why Fans’ Thoughts Are Always Fun Reads

Reddit, naturally, tore into this with the noisy enthusiasm of a seminar that got out of hand. Someone flagged Ottawa’s expected-goals-for percentage. It’s fourth-best in the league — and that metric, more than many, has a habit of predicting postseason grit. The Senators’ real issue has been between the pipes: a carousel of goalies until Ullmark returned and calmed the waters.

Throw in injuries that have yanked veteran blueliners out of the lineup, and you’ve got a team that looks ragged but, numerically, has teeth.

The Canadiens Might Be Better, But the Wild Card Might Be Easier

Montreal supporters responded with a particular mix of chagrin and cheek. There’s a certain frustration when the math rewards bracket geometry over team quality, but there’s also the kind of wry pride that keeps fans awake at night parsing scenarios. The thread’s tone was equal parts mockery, statistical posturing, and good-humoured nagging. This is exactly what Canadian hockey fandom looks like when it’s at full volume.

Montreal probably is the better team. But Ottawa’s playoff path might be kinder. The playoff lottery of matchups, injuries, hot goalies, and sheer randomness has an amusing habit of undermining tidy narratives. That’s the sport’s little cruelty and its charm.

As one Reddit comment put it: “It’s what betting sites use to make their odds. Which is why Montreal’s odds feel off even if they’re better.” In the end, the odds are often stranger than what fans see from the stands. But for those who love the game, the argument is half the pleasure.

This article first appeared on NHL Trade Talk and was syndicated with permission.

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