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NHL best bets: Two SOG props for Monday 4/3

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated Apr 3, 2023 11:39 AM ET

With the NCAA men's basketball championship tonight, the streets are empty in the professional ranks. There's no NBA, and just three NHL games. The lack of games only gives us a chance to give each matchup the proper attention, and what's left is a pair of plus-money SOG props.

.5u: Joe Pavelski over 2.5 SOG (+118 FD)

Dallas should be able to meet or exceed the 32.1 shots per game mark they've been averaging at home against Nashville tonight. The Predators are allowing 34.1 shots per game on the road over the last 10, and they become an even more inviting target when you see that they're handing out 3.7 power-play opportunities per game over the past 20 days.

Power-play involvement is one of the reasons Pavelski has hopped on my radar. Through the last 10 games, Pavelski has eight PP shots, right among the team leaders, as Jason Robertson and Jamie Benn both lead Dallas with nine shots on the power play. Then there's positional data. Nashville is allowing the third-most shots to the RW position during the last 10 games, so in comes Pavelski.

Now, PP involvement and a strong positional matchup are great, but without consistency at this prop, it's hard to move forward with Pavelski. It's for that reason that he is just a half-unit wager for me: Pavelski has gone over 2.5 shots just once in his last eight games.

If that scares you, so be it.

The push to get Pavelski over the top as a play has been his volume. He's averaging 5.0 attempts per game over his last five games, second on the team, and at home he has 4+ attempts in eight straight games.

When Pavelski sees 4+ shot attempts, he has gone over 2.5 SOG in 74 of 109 games dating back to the start of last season (68%). That's a mark I'm willing to back, the situation suggests Pavelski should once again find room to operate.

.5u: Jared McCann 4+ shots (+146 FD)

Seattle is certainly in the most enviable spot of the day in terms of shots. Arizona is allowing 36.5 shots per game on the road over the past 10 games and their penalty issues have grown even more paramount: up to 4.4 PPOA/game in the past 20 days.

McCann leads the Kraken in power-play shots and has been consistently ripping the puck at net. He has 7+ attempts in seven of his last nine games and four straight at home. Similarly to Pavelski, I'm drawn to this volume and how consistent McCann is when he gets it.

When McCann gets off 7+ shot attempts, he has gone over 2.5 SOG in 94% of the sampled games (33 total), and 27 of those 33 games saw McCann finish with four or more shots on net.

It's for that reason — plus the four SOG he had last meeting with Arizona, that has me opting for this higher number.

If you like my reasonings but would prefer something safer, might I suggest McCann 3+, Pavelski 2+ (-102 FanDuel)?

Griffin Carroll

Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders.

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