NHL bets for Tuesday night: It's a long season, so limit the risk

The Lightning and Rangers played nine times last season, and the average total goals scored was 4.89. The games ended at five or less total goals in seven of nine, with the other two games both finishing with seven. The under obviously looks like a terrific option at the standard 5.5, but would prefer a bit of breathing room here.

Tampa Bay and New York have two of the best goaltenders in the world on the ice tonight in Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin. Both ranked inside the top 10of fewest goals allowed and inside the top 12 of save percentage last season and should be able to pick up right where they left off.

As for Vegas-Los Angeles, when these teams meet the goals tend to follow. In the last 12 meetings between the Kings and Golden Knights, they've gone for 5+ goals 11 times. Ten of those 11 times, the total reached 6+ goals, so by all means, you could play this up higher. The name of my early- season NHL game is safe floors. 

Last season, Kings' games went over 4.5 in nine of their last 11. Golden Knights' games were over this 4.5 total in 14 of their last 16. 

1u: Adam Fox & Anze Kopitar 1+ point each (+182 FD)

I'm a bit wary of shots on goal props today, and that is partially due to losing out on our first such props of the year in the Prague games. 

What I keep reminding myself this morning is this: if these two games were part of a much larger slate, I would not even consider any SOG props. We can't go overboard here just because NHL is back. It's a long season. These four teams were stingy on shots last season and I would not have targeted them, so let's relax just a bit.

With that being said, I do think there's some value in points props.

I'm excited for what the Kings' top line does this season, as Kevin Fiala has joined Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe to form a menacing trio. Of the three, I like the center Kopitar to be involved in some scoring tonight, which partially stems from me liking his shots on goal angle. If I think he's going to shoot, there's some logic that either a goal or assist can follow.

Kopitar has 29 points in 25 career games against Vegas, and last season he piled up eight in four tries. Centers averaged 2.9 points per game against the Golden Knights last year, in the upper-half of the league.

Kopitar ended last season with a point in nine of his final 14 home games. The Kings met the Golden Knights in the season opener last year, and Kopitar finished with seven SOG, three goals, and two assists.

Adam Fox was on an absolute tear for the Rangers during their postseason run. The star defensemen had 23 points in 20 games, and was particularly dominant at home. Fox recorded a point in 13 of his last 14 games at Madison Square Garden.

Fox is a member of New York's top power play, and the Lightning were generous to power plays allowed a season ago. I also do think the Rangers will win this game at home against the team that knocked them out of the postseason. Fox had a point in 67% of games last season and has been a terrific facilitator for this offense.

Enjoy tonight on the ice!