NHL bets: Taking an over in Avalanche-Bruins showdown

On this President's Day, we're treated to NHL throughout the day, starting at 1:00 p.m. ET between the Colorado Avalanche and Boston Bruins.

In an effort to get ahead of the day's action, I want to share my first pick here before breaking down the rest of the day's games.

We're sticking with the team total approach, opting to roll with the away team on this Monday afternoon.

Colorado over 3.5 total goals, excluding OT (+110 DraftKings)

When looking at both last 10 scoring averages, this game gets on your radar, but it's the last five splits that push it over the edge for an official pick.

Led by Nazem Kadri, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado is averaging 4.2 goals per game in their last five on the road.

Meanwhile, Boston has been leaking in goals at home more and more. In their past five as host, the Bruins are allowing 3.8 goals per game.

That's a terrific unison of trends that points the arrow squarely towards the Avalanche in this one.

Aiding our need for goals is the ever-present power play advantage. Colorado comes into this one with a top-10 PP scoring rate, and they should get their chances to flex that muscle against a Boston team averaging the second-most penalties per game (last 20).

Now, let's acknowledge that Jeremy Swayman is in net for Boston, coming in to this one with a strong goals allowed number (2.14). Still, I find these goal-scoring trends go beyond the goaltender.

Without Brad Marchand, Boston hasn't been their usual dominant self. I think Colorado comes in to TD Garden and handles business.