Dallas' Jamie Benn (left) and Tyler Seguin (right). USA TODAY Sports photos

NHL bets: Time for the Stars to shine

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated May 31, 2024 11:47 AM ET

My read on tonight's game is simple: I think Dallas wins this game. They're 5-0 off their last five losses, and I think back at home they'll be better able to control pace.

Rather than take their moneyline, I'm spreading the net on a few guys to get involved in the expected goals coming.

.8u: Jamie Benn point (-110 DraftKings)

Let the record show: my initial target here was Wyatt Johnston to record a point, I play I was about to make at -140.

A look under the hood however brought about far more value on Jamie Benn. Johnston has four points this series: Benn has been involved in each one.

Not only that, but he's done plenty without Johnston involved. Benn now has a point in all four games against Edmonton, piling up seven total.

At home, he's logged a point in seven of nine this postseason (nine total). The draw on Johnston was his production during even-strength play, but as his linemate, Benn is just as attached to those numbers. Sign me up for the Dallas captain in a massive game in their own barn.

.8u: Tyler Seguin point (+110 ESPN BET)

I'm going to double-dip on my belief that Dallas finds 3+ goals and wins by taking Tyler Seguin point. We highlighted Roope Hintz on Wednesday to failure, and now I'm simply pivoting to the best price of Dallas's top-line, as I do still believe they offer us tremendous value.

For the series, all three of Seguin, Jason Robertson and Hintz are inside the top-five for expected goals and high-danger scoring chances, and that's with Hintz only playing the last two games.

That even-strength dominance should lead to some scoring here, and at these odds, give me Seguin every day of the week. Seguin has four points this series, including two goals in Game 1 at home.

Griffin Carroll

Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders.

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