NHL betting: Stars vs. Avalanche Game 4 odds, pick, prediction for Mon. 5/13

Stars vs. Avalanche Odds

Monday, May 13, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN & ESPN+

Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Dallas Stars

The Stars have displayed an elite offense throughout the season and into the playoffs. They ranked fifth in Corsi % during the regular season, reflecting their ability to control possession effectively.

This trend has somewhat dipped in the playoffs, where they stand eighth among the 16 Stanley Cup Playoff teams. Yet their offensive efficiency remains noteworthy.

The Stars were fourth in xG% (Expected Goals Percentage) during the regular season, indicating a strong ability to generate quality scoring chances. In the playoffs, they maintain this high standard, ranking fifth. They also improved their Expected Goals For (xGF) from ninth in the regular season to fourth in the playoffs, demonstrating their ability to elevate their game when it matters most.

Notably, their high-danger chances have jumped from 15th in the regular season to third in the playoffs, showcasing their ability to create premium scoring opportunities against the elite teams in the league.

On the defensive side, Dallas has been solid all season. The Stars ranked sixth in Expected Goals Against (xGA) during the regular season and have maintained this strong defensive presence, ranking fourth in the playoffs. Their ability to limit high-danger chances against has been impressive, improving from seventh in the regular season to second in the playoffs.

This has been crucial in stifling opponents' offensive threats as seen by the low-scoring series against the Golden Knights last round and their ability to neutralize the lethal Colorado offense this series.

The Stars also excel in penalty killing, ranking sixth in fewest Penalty Kill Goals allowed during the regular season and fourth in the playoffs.

Goaltender Jake Oettinger has been a standout performer, especially in the playoffs, where he ranks first among starting goalies with three starts or more in GAA (Goals Against Average) and sixth in goals saved above expected, providing a Stanley Cup-caliber last line of defense.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche also boast a dynamic offense that has been consistent both in the regular season and the playoffs. They ranked sixth in Corsi % and eighth in xG% during the regular season, showcasing their ability to generate and control high-quality scoring opportunities.

In the playoffs, they have improved these metrics, ranking fourth in Corsi % and third in xG%. Colorado was fourth in Expected Goals For (xGF) in the regular season and have slightly dipped to sixth in the playoffs.

However, their high-danger chances have improved from 13th to seventh, indicating a better quality of scoring chances in the postseason. Their power play has been a significant strength, ranking second in Power Play Goals during the regular season and maintaining a high standard, ranking fourth in the playoffs.

Defensively, the Avalanche have shown marked improvement in the playoffs. They ranked 19th in Expected Goals Against (xGA) during the regular season but have tightened up considerably, ranking second in the playoffs.

Their ability to limit high-danger chances against has been outstanding, improving from 23rd in the regular season to first in the playoffs. This defensive solidity has been a cornerstone of their playoff success.

Additionally, they have improved their penalty killing, ranking fifth fewest Penalty Kill Goals allowed in the playoffs, up from 13th in the regular season.

Goaltender Alexandar Georgiev has been a liability in net, however, ranking second among starting goalies in GAA yet 16th in goals saved above expected, showing the defense of Colorado is more to thank for the improvement rather than Georgiev himself.

Stars vs. Avalanche

Betting Pick & Prediction

Given the data, the best bet for Monday night's game is the Stars moneyline at +120 odds. Here's why:

1. Momentum and Performance: The Stars lead the series and have shown an ability to elevate their performance in critical moments, as evidenced by their improved offensive and defensive metrics in the playoffs. The only game they lost this series was an overtime loss in which they dominated much of the game yet gave up a simple breakaway which led to a heartbreaking loss. They could easily have a 3-0 lead in this series.
2. Goaltending Edge: Jake Oettinger’s playoff form has been exceptional, providing a significant edge in goal compared to Alexandar Georgiev, who, while decent, has not matched Oettinger’s postseason performance. As the postseason continues, goaltending is a major factor in who hoists the Cup.
3. Value Bet: At +120 odds, the Stars moneyline offers substantial value, especially given their playoff form and current series lead. While Colorado has a legitimate chance to even the series tonight, especially on home ice, Dallas has been a juggernaut this postseason, and to take plus odds on them is a wise move.

While the Avalanche are formidable, the combination of Dallas's balanced attack, stout defense, and elite goaltending makes them a strong pick for Game 4.

Bettors should capitalize on the favorable odds and the Stars' momentum heading into this crucial matchup. As of this writing, BetRivers has the best odds (+120), and other sportsbooks have playable odds of +115.

Pick: Stars moneyline (+120 at BetRivers)