NHL Conn Smythe Trophy odds and one pick for each team

We're down to four in the Stanley Cup playoffs, lessening the field for Conn Smythe Trophy winners. The Conn Smythe is awarded to the top overall player in the playoffs, and it takes all four rounds into account, not only what happens in the Stanley Cup Final.

With that in mind, we have a solid foundation to call on as we look for a few value bets in this market, though there are still two rounds left to compile a resume.

Current Conn Smythe Trophy winner odds

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings.

1. Sebastian Aho, Carolina (+600)
2. Jack Eichel, Vegas (+600)
3. Matthew Tkachuk, Florida (+750)
4. Roope Hintz, Dallas (+900)
5. Frederik Andersen, Carolina (+900)
6. Sergei Bobrovsky, Florida (+1000)
7. Mark Stone, Vegas (+1000)
8. Joe Pavelski, Dallas (+1500)
9. Jake Oettinger, Dallas (+1500)
10. Carter Verhaeghe, Florida (+1500)
11. Adin Hill, Vegas (+2500)*

*there are five players between Verhaeghe and Hill, but we felt it appropriate to highlight each team's goalie and their odds

We have an equal representation at the top of the board, with each team's points leader residing in the top four to bring home this award.

Sebastian Aho's placement here at the top of the board is curious, and quite the sign that books are expecting Carolina to bring home the Stanley Cup win. Aho has only 10 points so far this postseason, tied with Jordan Martinook on his team for the most among Hurricanes, and just 19th in the league through two rounds in the playoffs.

Roope Hintz of the Stars, meanwhile, has 19 points this postseason, right behind Connor McDavid for second most, and three more than the next closest player on the board here.

While there are rare occasions in which the Conn Smythe is awarded to a member of the losing team, it hasn't happened since 2003 and seems unlikely this year. The odds on Aho reflect Carolina's spot as the Stanley Cup favorite, +225 to win it all. Dallas is +310 to win it all and the underdogs to Vegas to advance out of the West.

History of past winners

Over the past 15 years, the breakdown of Conn Smythe winners has looked like so:

• 9 forwards
• 3 goalies
• 3 defensemen

The three defenseman winners, Cale Makar, Victor Hedman and Duncan Keith, all finished their postseason runs with 20+ points. It seems unlikely that we find a defenseman winner this season, as among current participants, Brandon Montour (+3000) and Miro Heiskanen (+2500) are the two leaders with just nine points.

Three goalies have brought home Conn Smythe honors in this stretch: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Jonathan Quick and Tim Thomas.

Vasilevskiy sported a 1.90 GAA to go along with a .937 SV% in his winning year. Quick had an absurd 1.41 GAA and .946 SV% in the Kings' 2012 Stanley Cup run. Tim Thomas helped the Bruins win it all in 2011 with a 1.98 GAA and .940 SV%.

So, that's the bar. The name to keep an eye on would be Frederik Andersen of Carolina, assuming he keeps his spot in the starter's crease after missing most of Round 1 and then playing all of Round 2.

Andersen currently is allowing just 1.80 goals per game to go along with a .931 SV%. If he can shut down Florida's high-flying offense, he figures to become the favorite should the Hurricanes advance.

The most likely position to win would be a forward, and that's reflected with the top of the board, as each team's current points leader sit in spots No. 1 through No. 4.

One pick for each team

A choice in this market is very much a bet on which team wins it all, and in many cases, if you like a team to win the Stanley Cup, your bet may be better suited where the odds are much better.

If you like Carolina to win it all ...

Frederik Andersen (+900) is the choice, as we just highlighted above. Aho only has 10 points this postseason, and Anderson successfully shut down New Jersey. If Carolina is to advance past Florida, it feels likely to be on the back of Andersen. Now, there's a chance the Canes may go to Antti Raanta, who helped them through Round 1 and has played quite a bit this season, but we're betting that Rod Brind'Amour sticks with the hot hand.

If you like Florida to win it all ...

Florida's best chance at winning it all is to outshoot the opponent and bank on that volume translating to goals. With that in mind, Matthew Tkachuk (+750) is a logical choice. Tkachuk has 11 assists through two round and 16 points in total. He was one of the most consistent shooters all year for the Panthers, yet we haven't quite seen that volume yet this postseason. An increased offensive role for Tkachuk, coupled with the points continuing to come makes Tkachuk the understandable favorite for Florida.

If you like Vegas to win it all ...

Let's navigate outside the top 10 and take a chance on Jonathan Marchessault (+3000). Marchessault has been a member of the Golden Knights since the franchise was formed in 2017, and he racked up 21 points in their Stanley Cup run that fell just short in 2018. 

When you consider momentum, none have it moreso than Marchessault, who just ripped apart Edmonton with shots and goals last round. Marchessault has five goals in his last four games and leads all current players in shots on goal this postseason. His 10 points are just four short of Jack Eichel, and he's surely heading into this round confident. His past postseason experience has us liking him to turn up the intensity as the playoffs go on.

If you like Dallas to win it all ...

We have to go with Roope Hintz (+900), set to become the postseason points leader with his next point. Hintz has 19 points in 13 games, nine goals and 10 assists. He is a part of Dallas' top line of Jason Robertson and Joe Pavelski that continues to find goals, and as long as that success can continue, Hintz feels like the likely favorite here.