NHL Friday bets: Five shot prop plays

Well, let's not hide from Thursday night, it went quite horribly. The good run we've been on had to hit a roadblock eventually, and it did so in fantastic fashion.

It's a new day, and we're trusting in the numbers and trends to back up these shot on goal (SOG) prop bets.

On the five-game slate, I see value, and as such, we've got five NHL plays for the night.

Vladimir Tarasenko over 2.5 SOG (-142 FD)

I know the odds aren't fantastic here, but this is a case of not wanting to attach another outcome to a play I really like.

Tarasenko has been steady lately, hitting his SOG prop in seven of his last nine home games. His attempts top the team, averaging 6.0 in his last five.

The Wild have been more generous to shots on the road, allowing 32.1 in their last 10 and 31.8 in their last five.

In Tarasenko's lone meeting against Minnesota this season, he finished with five SOG on eight attempts.

As we will get to in a bit, the Wild have been allowing teams power-play opportunities quite a bit lately, and Tarasenko is second on the team in power-play shots in the past 25 games.

He'll start our night off.

Josh Morrissey over 2.5 SOG (+110 DK)

We're back to our old friend Josh Morrissey, who continues to roll against his SOG prop.

He has now covered this line in 12 of his last 16 games, including eight of 10 at home. He's also gone over 2.5 in both games against Colorado this season.

The Avs have been a fine target to defensemen, allowing the 12th most shots to the position since March 1 and seeing defensemen routinely go over three SOGs against them lately.

As a team, Colorado is allowing 35.1 shots per game on the road in their last 10, making them a great target this evening.

Pierre-Luc Dubois over 2.5 SOG (-145 DK)

I'm double-dipping against the Avalanche, I think there's enough to go around.

I know he's another juiced guy but I can't ignore both Dubois's success and his attempt numbers.

PLD has covered his SOG in five of six and four straight at home. It's his home volume that really brings this to the finish line. In his past five in Winnipeg, Dubois is averaging 7.0 shot attempts per game.

With a 63% hit-rate on the year at home, I'm willing to drink the juice against this generous opponent. Dubois has 10 shots against Colorado in two games this season.

Valeri Nichuskin over 2.5 SOG (-130 DK)

We stay in this game with Valeri Nichuskin. We had Nichuskin loaded up the other night before he missed the game, and the logic all remains the same.

He's rolling with the injuries plaguing this roster, going over 2.5 SOG in eight of ten, often finishing with four.

Winnipeg is allowing 34.2 shots per game at home in their past 10, I like Nichuskin to continue his involvement here.

.5u: Steven Stamkos & David Perron over 2.5 SOG (+250 DK)

Consider this one an experiment.

Stamkos is playing Boston, a team averaging the most penalties per game in the last 10. Perron is playing a Minnesota team with similar issues, averaging the eighth-most penalties per game in the same span.

When slicing power-play shots in the last 25 games, these players are so heavily involved for their teams that it felt right to follow the data.

Stamkos is second in the NHL in the last 25 games with 34 power-play shots, which is 16 higher than the next closest player on the Lightning.

Perron is third in the NHL in this span, with 30 shots on the power play. That's 12 higher than the next closest Blues player (Tarasenko from above).

I think you likely understand this logic. I'm combining the two and risking just a half-unit, for science.

Best of luck Friday night! Let's get back on track in the NHL on this fine Friday evening.