NHL Friday bets: Games to target for goals

Thursday night's new article approach was quite a success, with all three team totals hitting and both leans. That's an encouraging start, so hopefully we can keep the momentum rolling with Friday's NHL slate.

Remember, this can be treated as a resource above all else. I have the games circled where I expect goals. You can bet the team totals, a few players to score a goal or combine a player from each team in a points parlay.

What you'll see here are the best value I've found for goals, and use that information however you feel is best for you.

Let's get to the games.

Tampa Bay Lightning

No team has scored more than Tampa Bay on the road lately, averaging 4.4 goals per game in their last five.

The Lightning played Thursday night and scored just twice, but Colorado was a tough opponent.

Friday is not the case, as the Lightning are treated to an Arizona team that gets pummeled with shots (37 per game at home in their last ten).

The Coyotes are averaging 3.2 goals allowed in their past five at home, Tampa Bay should have their opportunities.

Don't be concerned about the Lightning on a back-to-backs, trends actually suggest this is a good thing.

Tampa Bay has had four back-to-backs this season, scoring seven goals twice and three and four in the other two.

There's also a power play edge that favors Lightning scoring in this one. Tampa has a formidable power play unit, scoring a goal on 22.6% of their opportunities, and Arizona's penalty kill rate is the fifth-worst in the NHL in their past ten games.

You'd want better odds, but I can live with this with a Tampa team total on Friday.

Best Bet: Tampa Bay over 3.5 goals in regulation (-130 DK)

Favorite Goal Scorer: Nikita Kucherov

There are plenty of great options on the Tampa side for a point and a goal, but I'm rolling with Kucherov.

Kucherov has five goals in his last five road games, but I'm following shot volume more than anything else here.

On the road, Kucherov is averaging 5.4 shots per game in his last five. As a member of the top power play unit and getting pucks on net, this feels like a good spot for Kuch.

Goal odds: +160 FD

Dallas Stars

We're following the scoring trends Friday, as Dallas is another team putting up serious numbers in their location Friday. At home, the Stars are averaging 4.0 goals per game in their past 10 games, fourth-best in the NHL.

They'll get Winnipeg Friday, who are allowing 3.0 goals per game in their last 10 road games. While not one of the highest marks in the league, I find 3.0 to be an acceptable number to target.

Two things further help the case for Dallas here: shots allowed and penalties per game.

Winnipeg is seeing nearly 34 shots per game against them on the road and averaging the seventh-most penalties per game.

Dallas is a high-volume offense at home and one of the best power play units in the league, they are going to get their scoring chances.

We get some solid plus-money value here on DraftKings.

Best Bet: Dallas over 3.5 goals, including OT (+115 DK)

Favorite Goal Scorer: Joe Pavelski

This is tough, as there are so many great options for Dallas. Jason Robertson is a point machine at home and Roope Hintz is always a good bet to score.

I'm going with Pavelski for a similar reason I loaded up Kucherov, following shots.

Pavelski has 3+ shots in nine of his last 10 home games, but hasn't scored in four straight. Prior to the four-game scoreless streak, Pavelski had seven goals in six home games, so we know what he's capable of.

Pavelski is also a member of a high-functioning Dallas power play unit and could get his goal on a man-up advantage.

Goal odds: +176 FD

New York Islanders

Quietly, I think this Islanders team total offers us the best value of the night.

New York hasn't played much on the road lately, but in their past five road games, they're averaging 3.6 goals per game (10th most). They had six on Wednesday in their return to away games.

On the other end is Edmonton, a team allowing 3.8 goals per game in their last five at home, which is the seventh-highest mark in the league.

Mike Smith is the expected goalie for the Oilers and has mightily struggled lately. In Smith's last three starts, he's let up four, four and three.

We can get New York at extremely reasonable odds.

Best Bet: New York over 2.5 goals, including OT (-120 DK)

Favorite Goal Scorer: Anders Lee

Anders Lee has scored a goal in three of his last four on the road (four total), which is enough of a trend for me to follow Lee on Friday night.

He had a goal against Edmonton earlier this year as well. 

Goal odds: +225 FD

Closing Thoughts

There's only four games Friday night, but I still think the three spots above are worth a look for goals.

On the flip-side, my one lean for the night would be to fade the Anaheim Ducks. Anaheim is averaging just 2.0 goals per game in their last five at home and Seattle is allowing only 1.8 goals per game in their last five on the road.

As always, it wouldn't be a goals article without a parlay on the side. I will be parlaying my three favorites from above to score, which comes out to +2232 odds on FanDuel.

Good luck!