NHL Prediction: January 25th, Anaheim Ducks vs Calgary Flames

Calgary Flames Storyline

Calgary’s challenge remains converting effort into offence. At five-on-five, the Flames generate reasonable shot volume but struggle to turn possession into sustained inner-slot pressure. Recent games have featured long stretches of perimeter play without meaningful rebound or net-front presence.

Defensively, Calgary remains sound. Rasmus Andersson’s departure has increased reliance on Kevin Bahl and MacKenzie Weegar to manage exits, and goaltending has been steady rather than spectacular. However, the lack of finishing has forced the Flames to play from behind too often, shrinking their tactical flexibility. Against a Ducks team comfortable grinding games down, Calgary must score first to dictate tempo.

The Prediction Model

The blended model apply Monte Carlo simulations this matchup 10,000 times, using four evenly weighted inputs. The in-house model slightly favours Anaheim at 55 percent, reflecting their current form, defensive consistency, and goaltending edge. HockeyStats aligns closely, giving the Ducks a 56 percent win probability based on recent five-on-five suppression and goal prevention trends. MoneyPuck comes in more conservative, projecting Anaheim at 53.8 percent due to Calgary’s home-ice advantage and projected shot volume.

After blending all sources, Anaheim lands at 55.0 percent, with fair odds around −122. Calgary checks in at 45.0 percent, with fair odds near +122, placing the Ducks as modest but legitimate road favourites.

NHL Predictions

This game profiles as another controlled, low-scoring contest. Anaheim is comfortable letting opponents push play as long as structure remains intact, and Calgary has not shown the ability to consistently break down compact defensive setups. If the Ducks stay disciplined and avoid gifting transition chances, their patience should wear down a Flames team struggling to generate offence organically. Calgary will need an early breakthrough to shift the script. Otherwise, Anaheim’s ability to manage the neutral zone and lean on Dostal should keep the game within their preferred margins.

Prediction: Ducks win 3–2 (Model Probability: 55.0%)

2025–26 Season Prediction Record: 11-11

Prop Bets of the Night

On the Anaheim side, Jackson LaCombe over 0.5 points (+110) profiles well given how much of the Ducks’ offence now flows through his puck movement from the blueline. Anaheim’s recent success has relied on controlled exits and secondary activation, and LaCombe remains the primary distributor when plays extend beyond the first layer. Even in lower-scoring games, his minutes and touch volume provide point equity without requiring power-play dependence.

For Calgary, Nazem Kadri over 2.5 shots on goal (-115) is enticing, as he continues to generate attempts regardless of finishing variance. With the Flames searching for offence and often trailing in recent games, Kadri’s willingness to shoot off the rush and from the slot keeps his volume intact even when results lag. Against an Anaheim team comfortable conceding perimeter looks, this prop offers a stable floor without needing a breakout scoring night.

2025–26 Season Prop Bet Record: 25–22 (+6.63 units)

Lineup disclaimer: Projected lineups and starting goaltenders are based on available information at the time of writing. Please check official team sources prior to placing any wagers.

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