NHL Prediction: October 19th Anaheim Ducks vs Chicago Blackhawks

Chicago Blackhawks Storyline

The Blackhawks’ early-season inconsistency continues to mirror their rebuilding identity, competitive but fragile. Spencer Knight has been solid in net with a .915 save percentage but hasn’t received consistent help in front of him. Chicago’s defensive structure, especially in the second period of games, has been porous. They allowed two unanswered goals to Vancouver after building a strong lead. On offence, Bedard’s six points in six games underscore his steady star trajectory, while Ryan Donato’s power play marker against the Canucks showcased improved puck movement. Yet, their late-game energy dips remain a concern heading into a matchup with a faster Anaheim side.

The Model and Prediction Process

We combine four independent views of a game to estimate win probability. First, our in-house probabilistic model simulates the matchup 10,000 times using variabls such as team strength, recent performance, and advanced 5-on-5 metrics (expected goals for/against, shot share). Second, we pull an external model (MoneyPuck). Third, we convert sportsbook moneylines into implied win probabilities (after removing the bookmaker’s margin). Fourth, we add a second public model built from Advanced Hockey Stats. As you might guess, each source has its own strengths. Moreover, we learn weights from past games to emphasize the sources that have been most accurate lately. The weighted probability is then used to simulate scorelines and produce a final win chance and fair odds. After the game, we automatically log the result and update our evaluation so the blend can keep improving over time.

NHL Prediction

Our simulated 10,000-run model gives Anaheim an 80% edge on internal metrics alone, but the blended, four-source calculation lands at Anaheim with 59.8% to Chicago at 40.2%.  The underlying tilt comes from Anaheim’s superior 5v5 process. They have an xGF/60 of 4.0 versus Chicago’s 1.9, and a Corsi-share north of 63%. Quite impressive. The Ducks’ forecheck and zone pressure rate rank among the top ten in the league, while Chicago still leans heavily on goaltending to bail out turnovers. Expect Anaheim’s pace and shot quality to wear down the Blackhawks’ middle pairings over sixty minutes.

NHL Prediction: Ducks win 4–3 (59.8% win probability).

2025–26 Season Prediction Record: 2–1 (67%)

Prop Bets of the Night

We wrap up this NHL Prediction with two model-backed plays that align with Anaheim’s expected edge. First up is Leo Carlsson and the Over 0.5 Points (-130). Carlsson has points in three straight and drives primary shot assists on the Ducks’ top power play. Our simulation gives him a 64% probability to record at least one point tonight. We also are looking at Anaheim Team Total Over 3.5 Goals (+115). Across 10,000 simulations, Anaheim scored four or more in 57% of runs. Chicago’s defensive metrics and late-game fatigue trends both push this toward the over. The overlap between Anaheim’s puck control and Chicago’s penalty-kill struggles make both props strong correlation plays.

2025–26 Season Betting Record: 4–3 (+0.92 units)

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