NHL predictions for Panthers vs. Rangers: +300 same-game parlay for Game 1 on Wed. 5/22

Panthers Moneyline

The Rangers deserve lots of credit for their six-game series victory over the Carolina Hurricanes, and no one can call them frauds anymore. Still, New York is clearly facing a far superior opponent in the Panthers.

Florida features one of the most talented top-three units in the league, and the Panthers' style has proven to be particularly effective in the postseason over the last two years. Most notably, compared to what the Hurricanes had to offer, the Panthers have one of the very best goaltenders in the league in Sergei Bobrovsky, who has posted a +2.6 GSAx this postseason.

The Panthers have played to a 56.58% expected goal share this postseason, which is second to only the Stars. They feature a highly mobile defense core, which does an excellent job of generating offense without being exposed in their defensive zone.

The Panthers penalty kill has posted an 86.1% success rate this playoff, and it was the sixth-best unit in the regular season. Chances are the Panthers will win the even-strength minutes in this series, so if their penalty kill can do a reasonable job against the Rangers' incredible power-play unit, you have to like the Panthers' chances.

The Panthers are priced at -150 to win the series, and I believe rightfully so. Based on the series prices, it's easy to see that a big part of the betting prices on Game 1 revolve around the Rangers home-ice advantage. Road teams are 85-71 over the last two postseasons (+14.7 ROI%), though, and the Panthers, in particular, have gone 12-3 on the road in the last two postseasons.

The Panthers deserve to be a larger favorite than -115 here (my colleague Tony Sartori agrees in our Game 1 preview), and backing them to win this game is a good way to start our SGP.

Game Total Over 5.5

Over the last three postseasons betting the over in Games 1-4 of any series has been highly profitable, and I believe this Game 1 is a good time to try to target that trend. In that period, playoff games featuring a betting total of 5.5 or 6 have seen the over go 57-40-2 per out BetLabs data.

The logic is pretty simple. Early on in these series, teams are more willing to play a more aggressive style of hockey, and penalties are called at a higher rate. As series wear on, games become more tight-knit as teams have defensively adjusted to how their opponent is generating offense.

The Panthers should be able to generate a lot of chances at even strength in this matchup, and their projected team total looks too low to me.

Chances are the Panthers will take some undisciplined penalties looking to set a physical tone, though, which is going to provide the Rangers a chance to contribute to this low total.

Matthew Tkachuk Over 0.5 Points

Over the last two postseasons, Matthew Tkachuk has been one of the most dominant forwards in the league. He had a fairly quiet series against the Bruins with just five points, but Game 1 should present an excellent opportunity to get right.

Based upon today's morning skate, it looks like the Panthers are injecting a little bit more skill onto the Tkachuk line with Anton Lundell moving up into the mix.

Lundell has bounced back with an excellent postseason. Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe and he should be able to dominate lots of the matches that they'll get in tonight's game.

Tkachuk is also a key piece of the Panthers' power play, which should get ample opportunities to work in this early-series game.

The Pick: Panthers vs. Rangers Game 1 SGP: +300 at bet365