NHL Predictions: New York Islanders vs Florida Panthers, March 28th

Welcome back to NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. Our featured game of this edition is the New York Islanders taking on the Florida Panthers. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025-26 season.

New York Islanders vs Florida Panthers

Head-to-Head: Panthers 1-1 Islanders

How to Watch: US TV: MSGSN, SCRIPPS | Canada TV: TVA Sports, Sportsnet

Time: 1:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)

This NHL prediction features two Eastern Conference opponents sitting at opposite sides of the standings as the season comes down the homestretch. The Islanders continue their scrap for one of the Stanley Cup Playoff positions up for grabs in their conference. They hold down fourth place in the Metropolitan Division with a record of 41-27-5 after 73 games, which has them at 87 points. While the defending Stanley Cup Champion Panthers won’t even make the playoffs to defend the crown. They are in last place in the Atlantic Division after 71 games with a record of 35-33-3, leaving them with 73 points. This is the third and final matchup between these teams. After the first two games were split in Florida and New York, today’s will take place on Long Island at UBS Arena.

The Islanders Story

After a disappointing loss to the Chicago Blackhawks, the Islanders bounced back with a strong 2-1 win over the Dallas Stars. Over the last three games, the offence has scored two goals or fewer, a trend they will have to try to reverse. As a team, they rank 23rd in goals for with 2.84 per game. A 30th ranked power play at 16.2% conversion rate really drags the team’s goal production down. In the biggest games, they will continue to lean on their stars. Bo Horvat potted his 30th goal of the season in the last game. He is on a five-game point streak and has 52 in 59 games this season. He and the team’s point leader, Mathew Barzal, will try to guide this team to the playoffs. Over the last 10 games, he has one goal and eight assists. That brings his point total to 65 in 72 games.

Defensively, they continue to be strong. In two of the last three games, they have held their opponent to one goal or less. That has them inside the top three in goals against, ranking third in the league at 2.77 per game. The blueline took a hit with Tony DeAngelo set to miss one to two weeks with a lower-body injury. He is averaging 19 minutes of ice time a night. Luckily, they welcomed Ryan Pulock back, so that softens the blow. Ilya Sorokin has been putting the team on his back recently. He has won his last two starts while allowing just one goal on 53 shots. Those wins bring his record to 27-18-2 with a .914 save percentage and a league-leading seven shutouts.

The Panthers Story

The Panthers come into this game after dropping their last game; they have lost four of their last six games. In four of those games, they have scored two goals or fewer. They rank 20th in goals for with 2.93 per game. Injuries have hurt that production recently, as they are out two of their three top point producers. Sam Reinhart and Brad Marchand are both currently on the shelf, and it will be hard to produce goals with those two. Matthew Tkachuk has done his best to pick up the slack. He has five multi-point efforts in 12 games this month. Sam Bennett, as well, has enjoyed a career year with 53 points in 67 games. Despite the injuries, Florida still has dangerous players in their lineup.

Defensively, the Panthers rank towards the bottom in the league as far as goals against. They rank 27th with 3.31 per game. In four of the last six, they have allowed four goals or more. Despite the lacklustre numbers, they do have a top 10 penalty kill. Their unit ranks 8th in the league with an 81.7% kill rate. Their goaltending play has surprised in a bad way. Starter Sergei Bobrovsky, who is normally among the league’s best, has had a rough season by his standards. With a 26-20-1 record but an .878 save percentage, which is currently the worst of his career. Backup Daniil Tarasov has been worse, going 1-7 with an .881 save percentage over his last eight games. He is 9-13-2 with an .899 save percentage overall. With this being a back-to-back, both goalies will play a game this weekend. However, we just don’t know in what order yet.

Prediction

With both teams trending in different directions here at the end of the season, we expect the Islanders to take this game. They need this game much more than Florida does, so their urgency will be up. Despite this, the Islanders have the advantage in most of the areas of this game. With the injuries to the Panthers’ top six forwards, the Islanders have the better offence. While also holding defensive, goaltending and home ice advantages as well. It would be a letdown if the home team did not take this one.

Prediction: Islanders win 3-2

Prop Bets

According to the popular sportsbooks, the Islanders are the favourites at -172 on the moneyline, and we would take that. The over/under is set at 5.5. Due to the injuries on the Panthers’ side and the Islanders not exactly lighting it up recently, we would take the under at -105. As far as anytime goal scorers, for the Islanders, take Bo Horvat at +145. He just hit 30 goals and is on a point streak. Therefore, we think he continues that with a goal here today. For the Panthers, take Matthew Tkachuk at +195. He scored last game and has five on the month this season, we like him to add to it in this one.

Please play responsibly, check for your local rules and age restrictions, some jurisdictions require ages 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER