NHL Saturday bets: Attacking team props

We've made it to the weekend, and a loaded NHL slate awaits. I see two team prop bets worth betting on, so let's get right to the spots and why I like them.

Boston Bruins power play goal (-129 Sugarhouse)

We'll continue attacking this market after Washington delivered us a power play goal last night. This is a great spot for Boston, who are coming off multiple power play goals on Thursday against Chicago.

The Bruins have an elite power play unit, ranking fourth in power play goals per game in their last 25 games, and ranking first in Corsi For, which quantifies how many shot attempts they get off when skating a man-up.

They'll get Arizona, who own one of the worst penalty kill units in the league. The Coyotes rank poorly in expected goals against, goals against, Corsi Against and High Danger Corsi Against.

Some may be starting to get more familiar with these terms as I highlight them on a regular basis, but the translation there is that Arizona sees a ton of shots against them on the penalty kill, and the shots are leading to scores.

So, with two units on opposite ends of the spectrum, we load up the Bruins to net a power play goal at very favorable odds given the situation.

David Pastrnak would be my guess for a goal here, he's been dominating on the power play.

Parlay: Los Angeles & Tampa Bay each over 2.5 goals (+108 DK)

Why I Like Los Angeles

This game was on my radar after an initial scan and confirmed with more digging. On the road, Los Angeles is scoring 3.8 goals per game in their last ten. At home, San Jose is letting up 3.8 goals per game in the same time span.

That's always a nice intersection to see, and on an expected goals basis in the past ten overall, the Kings are averaging over three goals per game and the Sharks should be allowing over three per game.

It's just a solid unison of important goal-scoring metrics. These teams met two days ago, with the Kings scoring three times at home. 

Why I Like Tampa Bay

This is a bet built on a power play advantage, past matchup history, and recent goal-scoring trends.

We'll start with the average numbers. Tampa is scoring four goals per game in their past five on the road and Edmonton is allowing 3.8 in their last five home games.

These teams met a few weeks ago, with the Lightning piling on five goals in a 5-3 win. 

The biggest edge here, and where I expect to see at least one goal, is the power play.

The Lightning's power play ranks extremely high in both expected goals per game on the power play and High Danger Corsi For, suggesting that they are due for a pop there, even with 14 power play goals in their past 20 games.

Edmonton's penalty kill is awful and has seriously struggled, allowing the second most PK goals on a per-60 minute basis.

Enjoy your Saturday in the NHL!