There are 13 games tonight on the ice, and with so many tantalizing matchups on the board, it's understandable (yet frustrating) to see the prices on so many of our favorite targets. With odds at -140 or worse for many spots, it offers us a challenging opportunity to unearth value props in these spots.
Below are six guys you can play straight, two of which come in at plus money.
Per usual, we should expect this Florida home game to be a shot fest. The Panthers are leading the league in shots per game on home ice, averaging 40.9 per game, and as you may guess, most of their players' have been hitting their shot props at home.
Dallas is allowing nearly 34 shots per game on the road, and handing out the 2nd-most power play opportunities per game. Barkov is over this 3.5 mark in five straight at home, nine of his last 11 overall, and had 5+ in two games against the Stars last year. He's third on the team in PP usage and should be involved once again. He has a goal in three of his last four at home and scored twice in a game vs. Dallas last year.
.5u: Barkov goal (+170 CZR)
Let's stick in this game and go back to Joe Pavelski, who has now gone over 2.5 SOG in three straight games. Pavelski has come alive the last few games, tallying 16 shot attempts and nine SOG, and I'm surprised to see we can get him at +130.
As mentioned, Florida at home is a shot fest on both ends. The Panthers are allowing 33.1 shots per game at home, and opposing forwards have been getting their shots off across the board. Pavelski had three shots in both meetings with Florida last year, so let's keep this train rolling.
He has scored in three straight games.
.5u: Pavelski goal (+240 CZR)
We'll be targeting Columbus every night for shots until further notice. They're allowing the second-most shots overall at 36.2, and 34.3 at home. Without some of their top defensemen and forwards, the Blue Jackets' ability to control the puck and stop others from dictating the pace is going to continue eluding them.
While Cole Caufield looks like a solid option for Montreal, his price is a bit too juiced. Gallagher however, looks extremely enticing.
He's over this 2.5 mark in six of seven road games, and the Blue Jackets have allowed the third-most shots to RWs, where Gallagher presides. He's got solid attempt numbers, and some of his recent misses were against tougher teams to shots, like New Jersey, Vegas and Winnipeg. Given his road success and the opponent, this is a great spot at a great price.
.5u: Gallagher goal (+360 CZR)
Finally! We're getting consistent Noah Dobson shot lines, let's get right to him. Dobson has been a force for the Islanders, averaging 4.0 shots/game over his last five on 8.4 attempts per game.
New York sees a Nashville team allowing 32.3 shots per game at home. The Predators true weakness is on the penalty kill, no team is allowing more power-play shots than Nashville's 7.31/game.
Dobson is second on the Islanders in PP shots, and in two games against Nashville last year, Dobson had nine SOG.
Now, this is a look that will be incredibly rewarding if it comes through, as Morrissey doesn't have the typical long hit-rate you'd ideally like to see in a play.
But, there's a lot to like here. Morrissey has picked it up big time recently, especially at home. The Jets defensemen has nine SOG in his last two in Winnipeg, and he's averaging 5.2 attempts per game over his last five.
Winnipeg plays Anaheim, could I leave it at that? The Ducks are allowing 40.4 shots per game on the road, and defensemen typically pile up big games against them. Morrissey is the top D-man on this team and involved on the top power-play unit. This price is fantastic, and I love this gem.
St. Louis is a different team over the past few games, winning four straight and picking up the shots and goal-scoring pace.
The Blues play again this evening and draw a Washington team allowing 36 shots per game on the road. The Capitals appear to be most generous to RW shots, which would behoove our pal Vladimir Tarasenko this evening.
Tarasenko is over 2.5 in four of six at home, and has loved facing off against Washington in his career. In 11 career games against the Capitals, Tarasenko has 3+ shots nine times, averaging 3.73 per game. He's netted eight goals in those games and hasn't scored in six games despite steady volume. Tonight seems like a good time to get back to it.
.5u: Tarasenko goal (+215 CZR)
There are a lot of great looking spots this evening, and I'll be putting together some other parlays. In the spirit of brevity and this article's theme, we'll cap it there with the best straight plays I see for tonight on the ice. Good luck!
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