NHL Thursday Bets: Games to target for goals

For my regular readers, I'm going to suggest a strategy shift in regard to these daily pieces.

While I will be parlaying goals from my favorite NHL spots each night, it's becoming clear that to have long-term success here, the best move is a pivot to team totals.

This data-driven approach has often circled the right games, with goals aplenty. It's much harder to get the goal scorer right, which is why these are lottery tickets.

I will be betting .5u on each team total I highlight, and then parlaying my favorite goal-scorers for an added layer of fun.

Sound good? Good. Let's get to Thursday's games that offer us goal-scoring value.

Columbus Blue Jackets

My favorite spot is with Columbus, which has been rolling on the road recently. The Blue Jackets are averaging 4.2 goals per game in their last five on the road, the third-highest mark in the league.

They'll be graced with Buffalo Thursday night, which is allowing the fifth-most goals per game at home in its past five (4.0).

This is a great game on both ends, as Columbus is generous to goals and shots. Consider betting the over in this one, which is 6 (-120) on DraftKings, and 6.5 (+100) on FanDuel.

You can bet Columbus over 2.5 goals in 60 minutes on both DK and FD at around -170, but I feel the better play is an alternative total.

Best Bet: Over 3.5 goals, including OT (+120 DK)

Favorite Goal Scorer: Patrik Laine

Laine is rolling, with two goals in three straight games. On the road, he's scored in four of his last five. We loaded Laine up earlier this week and he delivered.

It's another great spot for him, so we go right back to the well.

He was announced as a game-time decision Thursday morning, but all indications suggest he's going to play.

Goal odds: +176 FD

Washington Capitals

It's worth noting that Alex Ovechkin is out for Washington, but it doesn't deter me from liking the Capitals Thursday night.

Before we get there, here are some recent trends for the Caps without Ovechkin. In the one game he missed so far this season, they scored three goals. Last season, he missed 11 games, and Washington averaged 3.09 goals/game in his absence.

They're capable of scoring without him, and they should have no issues doing so against Montreal.

The Canadiens are allowing 5.4 goals per game at home in their last five, the most in the NHL. They also see a lot of shots against them and average the most penalties per game.

Montreal is going to give Washington plenty of chances to find the back of the net in this one.

Best Bet: Washington over 3.5 goals in 60 minutes (-115 on DK)

Favorite Goal Scorer: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Kuznetsov figures to be the top shot creator for Washington, having gone for 3+ shots on goal in six of his last seven games.

Where Kuznetsov has the real edge is the power play. 31.5% of his shots come on the power play, and as we mentioned above, no team is averaging more penalties per game in their last 10 than Montreal.

He's going to have plenty of chances against the Habs.

Kuznetsov has scored in two straight games and three of his last seven on the road.

Goal odds: +198 (FD)

Calgary Flames

The Flames are pouring it on at home recently, including Wednesday night's six-goal barrage on Vegas. That total helped raise their last five average to 4.0 goals per game, the fourth-best mark in the league.

On the other end is Toronto, which is allowing 3.4 goals per game on the road in its last five, seventh-most.

That seems to be a very solid intersection to me, and it helps that Toronto has also been more vulnerable to shots on the road. Calgary should have its chances in this one.

I'm surprised at the reasonable team total odds for the Flames. You can bet their over at 2.5 goals in 60 minutes at just -125 on DraftKings. That's the safe approach, and I think there's also value to be had in moving one goal up to 3.5 (including OT), which gives you odds at +165 on DK.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals in 60 minutes (-125 DK)

Favorite Goal Scorer: Matthew Tkachuk

Looking at production at home, Tkachuk has been far and away the most consistent player for Calgary.

On the season, Tkachuk has scored a goal in 63% of home games, or 10 of 16 games. In his last 10 home games, he's got six goals.

Love that steadiness, he's my go-to here.

Goal odds: +172 (FD)

Closing Thoughts

Thursday night in the NHL offers some great goal-scoring value. I could easily add breakdowns for both Carolina and St. Louis here; I think both find themselves in great spots as well.

I ultimately excluded them from my top three because their opponents have been stingy to shots. Shots doesn't necessarily correlate to goals, but I do like following that volume when in need of breaking a tie.

I'll toss in my favorite goal-scorers from those two teams, in case you're curious. For Carolina, Andrei Svechnikov has four goals in his last six on the road and is +225 to score on FanDuel.

For St. Louis, no one has a definitively strong home trend, so the lean there is Jordan Kyrou, who has three goals in his last five games. His odds to score are +210 on FD.

I hope this new format is helpful, and more importantly, profitable!

I am parlaying my three favorites from the above list, which comes out to +2137 odds on FanDuel. I may add Svechnikov to a ticket, as I do like his chances Thursday night. His addition would bump the lottery ticket odds to +7170.

Enjoy the night's action!