Nick Kypreos sees Matt Duchene’s $4.5 million AAV as ballpark for John Tavares deal

Brad Treliving and the Toronto Maple Leafs have a lot of big picture decisions to make this summer as they retool their top-six.

One million-dollar question for the team right now: how much is pending UFA John Tavares worth? The homegrown centre is still consistently producing as he’s done his whole career, but at 34 years old, he won’t command a new contract that’s anywhere close to the $11 million he received annually over the past seven years.

The Dallas Stars gave some insight into the value of a reliable top-six forward on Thursday, signing Matt Duchene to a four-year, $18 million contract worth an annual average value of $4.5 million. On Leafs Morning Take Friday morning, Jay Rosehill asked guest Nick Kypreos about the comparable between the two and what insight it might give on a possible Tavares extension.

“That’s a fair comparable,” Kypreos said. “Excellent regular season players, can help you get there, but they’re not guys that I’m gonna look at as difference makers in the playoffs. Matt Duchene didn’t do much to help Dallas when they needed it most. Tavares has never had a reputation for playing his best hockey in the playoffs. He’s never seen the light of day of a Conference Final.”

Born just four months apart, Duchene had 30 goals and 82 points in the regular season last year, while Tavares had 38 goals and 74 points. They both finished the playoffs with single digits in the points column, albeit with eight more games played for Duchene. While some have speculated Tavares’ camp are chasing a bigger payout than Duchene received, meaning there might be a gap between them and the Leafs.

“Yeah, I think like any other agent, you’re not good at your job if you’re not shooting for the moon, or to squeeze out as much as you can out of the Leafs,” he said.

With that in mind, it becomes a different question when it comes down to what he’ll actually receive.

“I’m okay paying for your 60 or 70 points during the regular season, but to warrant six or seven or eight million dollars here for guys that don’t have reputations in the playoffs, to me that would be a big mistake,” Kypreos said. “4.5 is okay for me in Dallas, and I think you’re in the ball park for Tavares here in Toronto on a three or four-year deal.”

At the end of the day, there’s good reason to believe Tavares wants to stay in his hometown Toronto, where he and his family have settled in for a while now. Of course, when comparing contracts between Dallas and Toronto, there is the consideration of Texas being an income-free state, which may influence certain players to take lower deals. While it’s possible Tavares could receive a larger deal than Duchene, it’s all relative when it comes to the consideration of income taxes among other factors.