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Noah Dobson: his minus-16 differential last year is (very) misleading

Originally posted on Dose.ca | Last updated Jul 8, 2025 4:59 PM ET

The differential statistic (the +/-) is, in my opinion, of very little use. In fact, it has certain uses (for example, to compare players within the same team and see extreme cases), but the vast majority of the time, we’re talking about data that is sorely lacking in context.

Using it to talk about a player’s defensive play is even worse: Macklin Celebrini, who showed great things in his rookie year and is very solid defensively, finished the campaign with the eighth-worst differential in the NHL at minus-31.

So, more often than not, the number that comes out is all crooked. And Montreal has a good case in point with Noah Dobson.

Last year, Dobson finished the campaign with a minus-16 differential, which isn’t exceptional. That said, this figure is really misleading.

Because in reality, at 5-on-5, Dobson finished the campaign with a differential of… plus-3.

one of the many bad things about +/- is that looking at it you wouldn’t realize that Dobson was actually +3 at 5v5 this season pic.twitter.com/y8YSAHRw72

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It’s worth remembering that the differential decreases when a player is on the ice and a goal is scored against his team while they’re on the powerplay or have pulled their goalie.

The latter case is very reminiscent of Lane Hutson, who finished the last campaign at minus-2: the figure would have been much higher had it not been for all the times the defenseman was on the ice late in the game trying to tie the score while Samuel Montembeault was back on the bench.

A player’s differential can also be reduced if he’s on the ice when his team is scored on in overtime, when the game is 3-on-3. And once again, evaluating a player for his defensive play at 3-on-3 is not representative.

At 5-on-5, the game situation in which Dobson will most often play, he is a player who has found a way to have a positive differential in a particularly ordinary Islanders line-up, in a year that has been particularly difficult for him.

No, he’s not terrible defensively, as some would have you believe: without being Jaccob Slavin, he’s more than capable of holding his own at 5-on-5.

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