Offer sheet targets that the Edmonton Oilers should consider

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Potential targets for Edmonton

For this exercise, Edmonton currently holds $0.18M, although this could increase to a maximum of $3.18M with the potential salary dumping of Adam Henrique, or roughly half that if Mattias Janmark is traded, or $1.18M if Max Jones’ contract is buried in the minors. Regardless, this firmly puts Edmonton within the $4.68M and under category, with the greatest compensation required to be the 2026 second-round pick. Here are potential targets and a short breakdown of why these players could realistically be options and seamless fits within Edmonton’s lineup.

Unfortunately, two ideal candidates who would have brought speed, youth, and a deft offensive touch to the bottom-six signed deals with their own respective teams, Cody Glass, two years by $2.5M AAV, and Emil Soderblom, one year by $1.125M AAV. However, there are still several options remaining that could be quality fits within the Oilers lineup—specifically two forwards and two goalies, given Edmonton is fairly stout on defence and the remaining options would have to surpass Beau Akey and Ty Emberson to receive playing time.

Maxim Tsyplakov

The first target for Edmonton should be Maxim Tsyplakov from the New York Islanders. New York has recently signed Jonathan Drouin, Maxim Shabanov, and Emil Heineman, leaving themselves with $1.47M in cap space and has likely pushed the 26-year-old Maxim down the lineup.

There are several reasons Maxim would work in Edmonton. First, his projected cap hit is $2.0M at one year or $2.5M in two years, likely only costing compensation of the second or third-round pick. Second, he can play a physical, punishing style, logging 140 hits that would bring both energy and punch to Edmonton’s bottom-six. Third, for a talented shooter, he only netted 10 goals with an 8.5% shooting percentage, when his individual expected goals was 14.5, indicating he was shooting under his talent level by five less. Lastly, all underlying metrics support a strong positive play game, implied by both possession (Corsi% of 51.7%) and chance quality (54.6%) above the 50% benchmark. Further supported by goal percentage when on-ice of 52.3%, proving the Islanders scored at a greater degree with Maxim present on the ice, than off.

Luke Evangelista

A slightly more expensive option who remains an RFA is Luke Evangelista of the Nashville Predators. Although, I will note the doubtfulness of this option due to Nashville remaining in win-now mode and still retaining $10.2M in salary cap.

In 68 games, the 23-year-old Evangelista totaled 10 goals, 22 assists, for 32 points, scoring at a rate of 0.47 point-per-game. Similar to Tsyplakov, Evangelista was underscoring his goal total relative to the expected, tallying only 10 goals when the expected metrics highlight Evangelista should have netted 14 on the season. This is likely due to a 7.2% shooting percentage and provides indication of a likely positive regression. Not unlike Tysplakov, Evangelista generated strong possession (54.9%) and shot quality generation (54.8%), although Nashville was outscored by 1.2% with Luke on the ice. Lastly, his projected contract may place him outside of Edmonton’s available cap, coming in at $3.25M by two years.

Lukas Dostal

Taking a slightly different pathway, Edmonton could also pursue a different target to provide upside between the pipes. Although it would be a wonderful signing, it would be highly improbable for Edmonton to net Lukas Dostal from Anaheim. Even though the team now has three goalies on the active roster, they still maintain $28.7M in cap space, more than able to match what Edmonton could offer Dostal. Dostal’s current projected contract is also four years by $5.25M, a contract Edmonton cannot offer due to not holding the correct compensation, with the highest the Oilers could offer would be an AAV of $4.68M.

However, it would be great to have a netminder who put up a goals saved above expected of 14.3 and high danger save percentage of 0.800%, categories Edmonton has notoriously struggled with in the past.

Jakub Dobes

If Edmonton wants to pursue another high-upside, relatively inexpensive option, they should look to another Canadian team to help fill the void. Montreal is not only in a worse cap space than Edmonton, currently over the $95.5M cap by $5.23M, but they recently signed another goalie to back up Sam Montembault, Kaapo Kahkonen. Secondly, Montreal has an elite prospect in Jacob Fowler, who just completed dominating the college ranks and has begun his professional jersey to rise to the NHL.

How does he make sense for Edmonton? Although slightly younger than Stuart Skinner, 24, he is projected to make the equivalent of Calvin Pickard at $1M by one year with greater upside. Dobes was able to get his feet wet in the past season, recording 16 games played, posting a 7–4–3 record. Statistically, he was better than Edmonton’s netminder, posting a 2.74 GAA and a 0.909 SV%, and also marginally outplaying his counterpart, Montembault, 2.82 GAA and 0.902 SV%. Furthermore, he succeeded in areas where Edmonton goalies have not yielded positive results, recording a high-danger save percentage of 0.821% and 9 goals saved above expected in only 16 games.

Who is Edmonton’s likeliest target?

Several options that could have been potential future Oilers including Joel Hofer, Cody Glass, and Emil Soderblom have recently been signed within the past week. But as noted above, there are several quality options who can yet find their way onto Edmonton’s depth chart.

Based on the above analysis, the likeliest option Edmonton could pursue based on compensation, cap space, and opposition potential to match, Edmonton could do very well by offer-sheeting not only Maxim Tsyplakov to add forward depth and perhaps utilize a very strong shot to potentially ride shotgun along Leon Draistail’s wing. But also adding a young, high-upside goalie who could not only challenge Skinner, but provide the big plays from areas Edmonton has consistently struggled in.

Stats and info from: NaturalStatTrick