Offseason Checklist: St. Louis Blues

That would be winger Jake Neighbours.  The 2020 first-round pick quickly established himself as a top-six winger and surpassed the 20-goal mark in his first two full NHL seasons.  There’s a good chance he’d have gotten there this year had he not missed 13 games due to injury.  Between his steady secondary production is his physicality.  Neighbours has posted between 138 and 172 hits over the last three seasons, making him a rare top-six power forward.  Those players aren’t particularly easy to come by and it’s safe to say that he’s a building block that they’ll want to build around.

He’ll be owed a qualifying offer of $4MM next summer with salary arbitration rights.  To get him to sign early, it’s fair to say that it would cost considerably more than that to get him signed a year early, especially with the big increases set to come to the Upper Limit of the salary cap.  We can use the deal they just handed out to try to benchmark what an extension might look like.

Holloway signed for $7.75MM three years away from UFA eligibility.  Neighbours’ next deal will only be two years away.  Holloway has the better track record offensively so it’s fair to say that his new price tag should be the upper limit in a negotiation.  Considering that there is typically a premium for power forwards though, the gap between Holloway’s new price tag and a potential Neighbours extension might not be as large as it might seem.  Speculatively, a long-term deal (around six years) would carry a price tag of between $6.5MM and $6.75MM, even with the fact he’s coming off a lower year offensively.  If they’re not willing to go that high, the winger is probably better off waiting.  And if they are, locking up another piece of the long-term puzzle early would be a wise move.

Set The Starter

One of the storylines from the start of last season was if Joel Hofer would take over the starting role from Binnington.  The two wound up with very similar start totals with Hofer having 43 and Binnington 39.  But after the Olympic break, it was Hofer who received the bulk of the workload as St. Louis looked to make the improbable late-season push to a playoff spot.

Both goaltenders have one year left on their contracts.  Technically, they could keep this tandem intact for one more season but that wouldn’t be the prudent approach.  If the plan is for Hofer to be the starter moving forward, then the time is right to move Binnington.

In-season goalie moves aren’t too frequent so this offseason will probably be their best time to try to move him for value.  And while the 32-year-old isn’t coming off a good season, there will be teams who look at his track record and think that with a change of scenery, they can get him back to form.  Chances are that they’d have to take a goalie back as part of the swap but if not, a second netminder can be signed in free agency.

Then, the time might be right to look at trying to extend Hofer.  There are some reasonable comparables in Karel Vejmelka and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen ($4.75MM each) and Joey Daccord ($5MM) to build the foundation of a contract off of.  In a higher cap environment, Daccord’s equivalent cap percentage would be $5.45MM next season and $5.98MM in 2027-28 when the contract would begin.   Basically, Hofer is probably heading for Binnington money if he signs an early extension this summer.

The Blues could wait and see how next season goes.  But if they do and Hofer thrives as a full-time starter, the price tag will only go up from there.  They don’t have to try to sign him now but at a minimum, given the direction they’re heading, it’s time to set Hofer as the starter and give Binnington a chance elsewhere, netting some value in return in the process.

Round Out The Coaching Staff

Shortly after the season ended, the Blues made a pair of changes behind the bench but didn’t change head coach Jim Montgomery.  Instead, they parted with a pair of assistants, veteran Claude Julien and first-time NHL assistant Mike Weber.  Armstrong noted at the time that the intent was to build a staff that best suits the team moving forward, making choosing a direction that much more important.

One decision that will need to be made is the fate of Steve Ott.  He started the season as the associate coach in St. Louis but midseason, he became the interim head coach with AHL Springfield, whose playoffs are still going after they pulled off a big upset over Providence.  Does he return to the bench for the Blues or do they keep him in the minors and allow him to continue to apprentice as a head coach?  If they opt for the latter, they effectively have a third vacancy to try to fill.

If the Blues opt for more of a longer-scale rebuild, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team turn toward younger assistants with an eye on someone with a background in player development.  But if it’s more of a retool, adding a veteran assistant behind the bench could be the path they choose with the hopes that the coach would still be there when the team is looking to get back into the playoff picture.

It’s a small item in the grand scheme of things but Steen will have a chance to make an early impact behind the bench with potentially resetting 75% of the coaching staff.  Those hires could ultimately help signal just how long they think their roster revamping will take.