Oilers’ Andrew Mangiapane Facing Unwarranted Criticism From Fans

In recent weeks, fans have called for Mangiapane to be scratched and taken out of the lineup, as he continues to struggle to create any offensive production. At first, I thought it was a case of fans having unrealistic expectations of Mangiapane coming in, considering he sits around 30-40 points a season, but had 35 goals in the 2021-22 season, and some fans could’ve expected something similar.

After looking through some stats and getting some feedback, fans are genuinely upset with Mangiapane’s play at both ends of the ice, which doesn’t make any sense at all. His offensive production hasn’t been great, but the reality is, his role with the Oilers is to provide a defensive style of play in the bottom six. On top of that, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was able to find the back of the net more once the Oilers acquire a center at the 2026 Trade Deadline to pair alongside him.

At the end of the day, fans are allowed to expect more out of Mangiapane offensively. Having only 11 points just under halfway through the season isn’t ideal, but the reality is, he has been a solid defensive forward and shouldn’t be taken out of the lineup at any point.

Mangiapane’s Underlying Numbers Look Good

Let’s make one thing very clear: Plus-minus is a team stat. It heavily depends on the game situation, as well as which teammates the player has been playing with, and as I have mentioned, Mangiapane hasn’t been playing with the same linemates, which could affect chemistry, and he hasn’t played with strong defensive-minded players for the majority of the campaign, so taking a look at him being last in that category doesn’t mean he is a bad defensive player.

First off, a huge shoutout to NHL Sid for pointing me towards these stats. Second, we need to talk about his offensive struggles. Mangiapane’s even strength points per 60 sit at 1.13. For reference, Mattias Janmark’s even strength points per 60 sit at 1.24. Mangiapane hasn’t been good offensively, but that’s okay, since his value as a defensive forward is high.

One thing is very important to keep in mind when looking at Mangiapane’s underlying numbers. Heading into the holiday break, Mangiapane’s on-ice save percentage was 0.8475% to be exact. To explain how brutal that is, no other forward in the entirety of the analytics era (2007-08 and onwards) has played over 500 minutes in a single season and had an on-ice save percentage below 0.856%. This means when Mangiapane is on the ice, goaltending is brutal.

Let’s look at another stat. Mangiapane’s 5-on-5 relTM (relative to teammates) xGA/60 is -0.13, and his 5-on-5 CA/60 is -1.34. In these cases, negative values are a good thing, since this means the Oilers allow fewer chances and shot attempts with Mangiapane on the ice, when adjusted for teammate strength.

Obviously, this doesn’t make Mangiapane a candidate for best defensive forward in the NHL, but it indicates that the Oilers are better off defensively when he is on the ice, and he helps keep the puck out of the net.

With Trades Coming, Mangiapane Will Become More Important

The Oilers have a lot of players sitting on the sidelines rehabbing injuries. Jake Walman, Kasperi Kapanen, and Tristan Jarry all remain out, but are expected to return early in the new year. The issue is that the Oilers are in some cap trouble and will need to make some moves in order to be able to activate these players off of injured reserve.

Two players who I think could become cap casualties are Mattias Janmark and Kasperi Kapanen, who are both strong defensive players and play on the penalty kill, which will force the Oilers to lean on other players to play in that role. Mangiapane will be the next player up and will likely get another look on the penalty kill if Janmark and Kapanen aren’t around, and while he hasn’t been trusted with that kind of role this season, his strong underlying numbers and ability to play strong defensive hockey could lead the coaching staff to give him a shot.

At the end of the day, Mangiapane is a valuable player. His offensive production could come up, and it’s fine to be upset about the fact that he hasn’t been producing as much as originally expected, but for fans to call for him to be taken out of the lineup seems completely unwarranted. He took less money in free agency to join the Oilers, is an energy guy who fits well on their third line, and plays a confident game that helps them find success.

Realistically, Mangiapane is a perfect fit on the third line and shouldn’t come off of it for any reason.

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