Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

Oilers' Connor McDavid Projected to Break $20-Million Cap Hit

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Antonio Losada | Last updated Feb 8, 2025 5:45 AM ET

Edmonton Oilers superstar Connor McDavid could become the first player in NHL history to sign a contract worth more than $20 million per season when he signs his next contract between now and July 2026 when his current deal is set to expire.

In a breakdown for The Athletic, analyst Dom Luszczyszyn projected the Oilers captain is in line for a record-breaking deal when his contract expires in 2026.

As Luszczyszyn points out, the NHL recently announced a massive salary cap increase projection for the next three years with that surge sandwiching McDavid's negotiating window. The NHL and NHLPA expect the cap to reach $104 million in 2026–27 and $113.5 million by 2027–28.

“A league-max deal is 20 percent of the cap and during the 2026–27 season that amounts to $20.8 million,” Luszczyszyn wrote. “According to my model, McDavid is currently the only player in the league projected to be worth 20 percent of the cap or more.”

Luszczyszyn pointed to three key reasons why McDavid’s next contract could break the $20-million-per-year -barrier.

First and most obviously, the timing of his extension aligns with the cap surpassing $100 million for the first time in league history, giving teams more spending power.

Second, Luszczyszyn argued that higher revenues will slow the long-term decline of player value, making max contracts more viable as the revenue will supposedly help the cap keep rising steadily.

Third and finally, the analyst noted that the NHL has lagged behind other major sports leagues in player salaries and expects a push to close that gap, building a pathway for other star players to start earning huge amounts of money not long from now.

“The highest-paid NFL, NBA, and MLB players all clear $50 million per season,” Luszczyszyn wrote. “The NHL is still playing catch-up on that front and McDavid has a chance to pave the way for that by raising the bar in a serious way.”

McDavid, 28, is in the eighth season of an eight-year, $100 million contract, which carries an annual cap hit of $12.5 million.

Two players are currently earning more money than McDavid on a yearly basis: Toronto Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews ($13.25 million as part of a four-year deal) and Colorado Avalanche forward Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6 million on the second season of an eight-year contract).

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: